Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON After Negative Funding?
TRON has recorded 49 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.79% and 55.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.7% to -3.9% | 1 |
| -3.9% to -3.1% | 0 |
| -3.1% to -2.3% | 1 |
| -2.3% to -1.5% | 3 |
| -1.5% to -0.7% | 6 |
| -0.7% to +0.1% | 20 |
| +0.1% to +0.9% | 10 |
| +0.9% to +1.7% | 4 |
| +1.7% to +2.5% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 49 | -0.11% | -0.10% | 40.8% | 2.52% | -4.74% |
| 3 days | 49 | 0.38% | -0.12% | 53.1% | 4.46% | -8.28% |
| 7 days | 49 | 0.79% | -0.08% | 55.1% | 6.10% | -11.39% |
| 14 days | 49 | -0.05% | -0.28% | 49.0% | 7.88% | -13.95% |
| 30 days | 46 | 0.27% | -1.42% | 50.0% | 9.77% | -16.08% |
| 90 days | 39 | -0.73% | -1.13% | 46.2% | 25.94% | -20.44% |
Historical occurrences
49 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | -0.01 | $0.34 | -1.06% | -3.26% | -0.24% | +0.69% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -0.00 | $0.34 | -0.20% | -2.65% | -2.93% | -0.86% | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | -0.01 | $0.34 | -0.05% | +1.56% | -4.17% | +0.78% | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | -0.00 | $0.33 | +0.01% | +0.51% | +4.02% | +2.97% | +2.16% | — |
| 2026-08-05 | -0.02 | $0.33 | +0.02% | +0.11% | +2.39% | +1.71% | +1.13% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -0.36% | -0.18% | +0.36% | +1.00% | +1.45% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | -0.01 | $0.33 | +0.21% | -1.74% | -1.48% | -0.97% | +4.06% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.00 | $0.33 | -0.02% | +0.78% | -1.01% | -0.49% | +4.43% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -0.97% | -0.37% | -1.73% | -0.61% | -1.38% | — |
| 2026-07-06 | -0.01 | $0.33 | +0.13% | -0.24% | +0.70% | -0.70% | -0.59% | — |
| 2026-05-27 | -0.00 | $0.38 | -1.97% | -8.28% | -11.39% | -13.95% | -13.74% | -8.07% |
| 2026-05-23 | -0.00 | $0.36 | +0.21% | +2.64% | -4.94% | -11.54% | -9.54% | -6.76% |
| 2026-05-16 | -0.00 | $0.35 | +0.85% | +0.98% | +2.81% | -2.27% | -8.66% | -5.04% |
| 2026-05-14 | -0.00 | $0.35 | +1.18% | +1.59% | +2.71% | +5.21% | -9.80% | -4.17% |
| 2026-05-11 | -0.00 | $0.35 | +0.11% | -0.33% | +1.34% | +4.18% | -7.96% | -6.21% |
| 2026-05-08 | -0.00 | $0.35 | +0.35% | +0.47% | +1.33% | +4.58% | -7.14% | -6.26% |
| 2026-05-03 | -0.00 | $0.33 | +2.50% | +4.46% | +6.10% | +7.59% | +4.04% | -1.28% |
| 2026-04-23 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -0.25% | -1.71% | -2.00% | +5.02% | +9.77% | -0.07% |
| 2026-04-19 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -0.11% | +1.05% | -1.66% | +0.14% | +7.87% | -2.10% |
| 2026-04-15 | -0.00 | $0.32 | +1.02% | +1.23% | +2.82% | -0.24% | +9.18% | +0.10% |
| 2026-04-13 | -0.01 | $0.32 | -0.25% | +1.83% | +2.45% | +0.72% | +8.62% | +2.61% |
| 2026-04-06 | -0.00 | $0.33 | -0.51% | +0.77% | -1.89% | +0.51% | +5.27% | -0.73% |
| 2026-03-23 | -0.00 | $0.31 | -1.05% | +1.26% | +3.51% | +5.38% | +7.16% | +5.05% |
| 2026-03-20 | -0.00 | $0.30 | +2.04% | +2.38% | +2.62% | +6.68% | +8.56% | +5.93% |
| 2026-03-15 | -0.01 | $0.30 | +0.27% | +3.10% | +4.46% | +6.41% | +7.62% | +5.86% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-03: +6.10%
- 2026-01-09: +5.99%
- 2026-01-12: +5.99%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-27: -11.39%
- 2026-01-19: -6.76%
- 2025-10-10: -6.24%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is below 0%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.