Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Sui has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.66% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -3.6% to -2.7% | 2 |
| -2.7% to -1.8% | 1 |
| -1.8% to -1.0% | 0 |
| -1.0% to -0.1% | 0 |
| -0.1% to +0.7% | 2 |
| +0.7% to +1.6% | 0 |
| +1.6% to +2.5% | 0 |
| +2.5% to +3.3% | 0 |
| +3.3% to +4.2% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -0.01% | -0.01% | 42.9% | 4.19% | -3.56% |
| 3 days | 7 | -4.49% | 0.23% | 42.9% | 15.52% | -6.43% |
| 7 days | 7 | -1.66% | -0.36% | 42.9% | 8.75% | -7.15% |
| 14 days | 6 | -1.96% | -1.02% | 33.3% | 5.71% | -7.20% |
| 30 days | 5 | -10.06% | -3.09% | 20.0% | 25.67% | -11.24% |
| 90 days | 5 | -17.29% | -17.50% | 20.0% | 0.79% | -42.11% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.78 | -3.56% | +3.61% | -7.15% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.71 | +3.95% | +15.52% | +8.75% | +5.71% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.96 | -2.74% | +4.09% | -1.69% | -2.61% | +25.67% | -23.44% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.98 | +0.43% | -4.72% | +0.36% | +3.28% | -10.35% | -17.29% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.99 | -2.33% | -6.43% | -1.66% | -1.30% | -11.24% | +0.79% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $1.02 | -0.01% | -5.96% | -2.98% | -3.97% | -10.06% | -5.46% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $1.63 | +4.19% | -4.49% | +1.87% | -7.20% | -9.48% | -42.11% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +8.75%
- 2025-12-03: +1.87%
- 2026-03-05: +0.36%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-09-04: -7.15%
- 2026-02-07: -2.98%
- 2026-04-14: -1.69%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.