Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Sui has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.87% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.1% to -4.8% | 1 |
| -4.8% to -2.5% | 3 |
| -2.5% to -0.1% | 0 |
| -0.1% to +2.2% | 0 |
| +2.2% to +4.5% | 1 |
| +4.5% to +6.8% | 0 |
| +6.8% to +9.1% | 0 |
| +9.1% to +11.4% | 0 |
| +11.4% to +13.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -3.10% | -0.20% | 33.3% | 13.74% | -7.09% |
| 3 days | 6 | -6.01% | -2.50% | 33.3% | 14.63% | -16.13% |
| 7 days | 6 | -6.87% | -8.37% | 33.3% | 5.66% | -32.85% |
| 14 days | 6 | -2.36% | -4.20% | 33.3% | 10.90% | -29.04% |
| 30 days | 6 | -13.48% | -12.81% | 16.7% | 3.17% | -30.82% |
| 90 days | 6 | -25.90% | -19.95% | 16.7% | 10.28% | -35.80% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $0.81 | +2.17% | -12.90% | -7.18% | -1.37% | -8.99% | -9.97% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $0.90 | +13.74% | +11.41% | +5.66% | +7.54% | +3.17% | +10.28% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $1.17 | -3.83% | -3.32% | -12.42% | -9.88% | -19.44% | -21.47% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $1.34 | -3.65% | -16.13% | -32.85% | -29.04% | -30.82% | -32.38% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $1.50 | -7.09% | -8.70% | +3.14% | +10.90% | -2.81% | -35.80% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $2.61 | -2.55% | +14.63% | -6.55% | -3.35% | -17.97% | -30.34% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +5.66%
- 2025-11-21: +3.14%
- 2025-10-11: -6.55%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -32.85%
- 2026-02-01: -12.42%
- 2026-06-03: -7.18%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.