Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Sui has recorded 31 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.47% and 32.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -32.8% to -27.0% | 1 |
| -27.0% to -21.2% | 0 |
| -21.2% to -15.3% | 3 |
| -15.3% to -9.5% | 6 |
| -9.5% to -3.6% | 5 |
| -3.6% to +2.2% | 9 |
| +2.2% to +8.0% | 4 |
| +8.0% to +13.9% | 1 |
| +13.9% to +19.7% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 32 | -0.16% | -0.21% | 46.9% | 20.99% | -8.28% |
| 3 days | 32 | -2.55% | -1.63% | 40.6% | 23.30% | -16.13% |
| 7 days | 31 | -2.47% | -4.81% | 32.3% | 19.72% | -32.85% |
| 14 days | 31 | -3.35% | -7.73% | 32.3% | 10.90% | -32.78% |
| 30 days | 30 | -14.32% | -11.76% | 26.7% | 26.99% | -39.62% |
| 90 days | 29 | -32.38% | -30.59% | 6.9% | 16.60% | -63.00% |
Historical occurrences
32 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | -5.82 | $0.73 | -0.25% | -3.43% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | -5.99 | $0.80 | -5.23% | -2.40% | -9.08% | +2.40% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -5.88 | $0.68 | +1.71% | +1.68% | +1.49% | +0.51% | +12.79% | — |
| 2026-06-05 | -7.05 | $0.77 | -8.28% | -1.19% | -1.61% | -4.88% | -0.67% | -2.66% |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.13 | $0.81 | +2.17% | -12.90% | -7.18% | -1.37% | -8.99% | -9.97% |
| 2026-05-23 | -6.79 | $1.05 | +1.84% | -0.43% | -13.50% | -32.78% | -33.73% | -29.85% |
| 2026-05-16 | -7.40 | $1.10 | -3.46% | -3.24% | -4.85% | -17.69% | -26.95% | -37.32% |
| 2026-04-09 | -5.00 | $0.91 | +1.82% | +2.99% | +5.11% | +3.40% | +11.87% | -20.35% |
| 2026-03-27 | -5.01 | $0.95 | -7.53% | -11.00% | -9.43% | -2.27% | -1.38% | -28.09% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.08 | $1.01 | -1.55% | -2.69% | -0.51% | -12.49% | -0.95% | -21.02% |
| 2026-03-07 | -5.25 | $0.93 | +0.13% | +4.18% | +9.06% | +4.26% | -5.31% | -17.46% |
| 2026-02-23 | -7.74 | $0.91 | -0.07% | +8.64% | +0.51% | +0.94% | +6.89% | +16.60% |
| 2026-02-06 | -18.28 | $0.90 | +13.74% | +11.41% | +5.66% | +7.54% | +3.17% | +10.28% |
| 2026-02-01 | -9.49 | $1.17 | -3.83% | -3.32% | -12.42% | -9.88% | -19.44% | -21.47% |
| 2026-01-30 | -6.66 | $1.34 | -3.65% | -16.13% | -32.85% | -29.04% | -30.82% | -32.38% |
| 2026-01-26 | -6.72 | $1.42 | +3.59% | +1.24% | -20.75% | -29.30% | -36.91% | -33.86% |
| 2026-01-21 | -5.42 | $1.49 | +2.31% | +1.62% | -2.12% | -24.25% | -35.11% | -36.73% |
| 2026-01-19 | -7.23 | $1.66 | -4.61% | -7.70% | -14.22% | -32.02% | -39.62% | -42.15% |
| 2025-12-18 | -5.89 | $1.42 | -5.30% | +2.27% | -0.49% | -1.27% | +26.99% | -25.34% |
| 2025-12-16 | -5.55 | $1.47 | +2.83% | -8.37% | -0.63% | -2.15% | +26.72% | -28.07% |
| 2025-12-06 | -6.28 | $1.56 | +0.60% | +3.61% | +0.32% | -4.77% | +9.14% | -36.99% |
| 2025-12-02 | -10.32 | $1.35 | +20.99% | +23.30% | +19.72% | +9.19% | +4.32% | -31.80% |
| 2025-11-21 | -6.70 | $1.50 | -7.09% | -8.70% | +3.14% | +10.90% | -2.81% | -35.80% |
| 2025-11-15 | -6.83 | $1.74 | +1.42% | -7.21% | -20.17% | -12.60% | -10.66% | -45.33% |
| 2025-11-12 | -7.13 | $2.01 | -2.16% | -13.32% | -17.02% | -22.26% | -19.71% | -52.03% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-02: +19.72%
- 2025-09-26: +14.47%
- 2026-03-07: +9.06%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -32.85%
- 2026-01-26: -20.75%
- 2025-11-15: -20.17%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.