Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui After a 5% One-Day Rise?
Sui has recorded 23 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.68% and 30.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -21.6% to -17.7% | 3 |
| -17.7% to -13.9% | 0 |
| -13.9% to -10.1% | 3 |
| -10.1% to -6.2% | 4 |
| -6.2% to -2.4% | 4 |
| -2.4% to +1.5% | 4 |
| +1.5% to +5.3% | 1 |
| +5.3% to +9.1% | 3 |
| +9.1% to +13.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 23 | -0.94% | -0.22% | 34.8% | 6.52% | -5.00% |
| 3 days | 23 | -2.92% | 0.31% | 39.1% | 26.06% | -9.27% |
| 7 days | 23 | -5.68% | -4.82% | 30.4% | 12.98% | -21.58% |
| 14 days | 21 | -7.20% | -8.04% | 23.8% | 12.07% | -35.34% |
| 30 days | 19 | -11.24% | -17.46% | 21.1% | 25.67% | -49.76% |
| 90 days | 18 | -37.87% | -32.47% | 16.7% | 4.98% | -59.35% |
Historical occurrences
23 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 5.23 | $0.79 | +2.09% | +2.05% | -8.81% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 5.01 | $0.78 | -3.56% | +3.61% | -7.15% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 15.03 | $0.84 | -3.39% | -5.30% | -11.86% | -10.47% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 8.32 | $0.71 | +3.95% | +15.52% | +8.75% | +5.71% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 5.62 | $0.76 | -0.94% | -2.92% | +1.23% | -9.17% | -9.59% | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 5.52 | $0.76 | -0.30% | -4.04% | +6.01% | -8.49% | -3.86% | +4.98% |
| 2026-05-11 | 24.19 | $1.33 | -3.16% | -9.27% | -21.58% | -22.55% | -43.73% | -48.02% |
| 2026-05-09 | 5.54 | $1.02 | +4.81% | +26.06% | +7.47% | +2.26% | -25.95% | -34.30% |
| 2026-04-14 | 6.56 | $0.96 | -2.74% | +4.09% | -1.69% | -2.61% | +25.67% | -23.44% |
| 2026-04-08 | 10.24 | $0.96 | -5.00% | -1.89% | -2.86% | -1.32% | +0.70% | -22.12% |
| 2026-02-26 | 10.75 | $0.99 | -2.33% | -6.43% | -1.66% | -1.30% | -11.24% | +0.79% |
| 2026-02-15 | 6.04 | $1.05 | -4.56% | -5.22% | -6.14% | -11.97% | +3.05% | +4.21% |
| 2026-02-07 | 13.74 | $1.02 | -0.01% | -5.96% | -2.98% | -3.97% | -10.06% | -5.46% |
| 2026-01-14 | 6.76 | $1.90 | -1.74% | -4.72% | -21.21% | -22.88% | -49.76% | -49.29% |
| 2026-01-06 | 12.33 | $1.91 | -0.32% | -4.60% | -6.89% | -17.19% | -42.17% | -53.89% |
| 2026-01-03 | 9.33 | $1.61 | +3.33% | +18.32% | +12.98% | +12.07% | -30.16% | -46.47% |
| 2025-12-20 | 9.98 | $1.48 | -1.80% | -1.39% | -5.68% | +8.81% | +11.77% | -33.01% |
| 2025-12-03 | 20.99 | $1.63 | +4.19% | -4.49% | +1.87% | -7.20% | -9.48% | -42.11% |
| 2025-11-25 | 11.77 | $1.53 | +2.29% | +1.07% | -11.86% | +5.52% | -7.33% | -40.19% |
| 2025-11-08 | 9.33 | $2.15 | -1.57% | +0.61% | -19.01% | -35.34% | -26.46% | -58.10% |
| 2025-10-27 | 5.64 | $2.68 | -2.51% | -6.17% | -11.99% | -19.97% | -41.64% | -43.12% |
| 2025-10-13 | 10.43 | $2.81 | +6.52% | -4.56% | -8.14% | -4.75% | -28.49% | -35.55% |
| 2025-10-02 | 8.06 | $3.52 | +1.75% | +2.83% | +0.33% | -23.92% | -32.96% | -59.35% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-03: +12.98%
- 2026-08-20: +8.75%
- 2026-05-09: +7.47%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-11: -21.58%
- 2026-01-14: -21.21%
- 2025-11-08: -19.01%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.