Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Sui has recorded 57 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.85% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -23.4% to -18.5% | 1 |
| -18.5% to -13.5% | 0 |
| -13.5% to -8.6% | 0 |
| -8.6% to -3.7% | 17 |
| -3.7% to +1.3% | 20 |
| +1.3% to +6.2% | 16 |
| +6.2% to +11.1% | 3 |
| +11.1% to +16.1% | 1 |
| +16.1% to +21.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 59 | 0.13% | -0.47% | 52.5% | 20.99% | -23.41% |
| 3 days | 58 | -2.55% | -2.18% | 37.9% | 29.52% | -24.37% |
| 7 days | 57 | -4.85% | -5.50% | 33.3% | 19.72% | -32.85% |
| 14 days | 56 | -6.65% | -8.50% | 26.8% | 33.50% | -32.78% |
| 30 days | 51 | -9.98% | -12.15% | 33.3% | 37.16% | -43.68% |
| 90 days | 49 | -32.73% | -28.59% | 12.2% | 38.09% | -63.00% |
Historical occurrences
60 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -4.75 | $0.69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | -3.11 | $0.70 | +2.62% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -4.81 | $0.77 | -5.82% | -6.13% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -3.56 | $0.76 | +5.23% | +8.31% | -3.97% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -4.57 | $0.71 | +2.19% | +4.92% | +14.15% | -1.21% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -4.63 | $0.74 | +0.18% | -2.31% | +1.58% | -2.45% | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | -5.99 | $0.80 | -5.23% | -2.40% | -9.08% | +2.40% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | -3.39 | $0.82 | +4.27% | -7.10% | -8.60% | -2.48% | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | -3.44 | $0.65 | +8.32% | +29.52% | +16.24% | +10.76% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -5.88 | $0.68 | +1.71% | +1.68% | +1.49% | +0.51% | +12.79% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | -4.52 | $0.71 | +0.05% | -4.22% | -4.10% | -5.43% | +19.64% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | -3.66 | $0.77 | -4.94% | -6.96% | -10.69% | -6.79% | -3.54% | -10.47% |
| 2026-06-05 | -7.05 | $0.77 | -8.28% | -1.19% | -1.61% | -4.88% | -0.67% | -2.66% |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.13 | $0.81 | +2.17% | -12.90% | -7.18% | -1.37% | -8.99% | -9.97% |
| 2026-05-27 | -3.96 | $1.00 | -4.25% | -9.54% | -19.30% | -25.09% | -31.67% | -20.09% |
| 2026-05-25 | -3.19 | $1.03 | +0.99% | -7.12% | -13.22% | -26.54% | -31.75% | -20.93% |
| 2026-05-23 | -6.79 | $1.05 | +1.84% | -0.43% | -13.50% | -32.78% | -33.73% | -29.85% |
| 2026-05-16 | -7.40 | $1.10 | -3.46% | -3.24% | -4.85% | -17.69% | -26.95% | -37.32% |
| 2026-05-12 | -3.16 | $1.29 | -4.04% | -7.93% | -17.51% | -19.23% | -43.63% | -46.78% |
| 2026-04-19 | -4.07 | $0.96 | -3.54% | -0.83% | -1.91% | -3.12% | +11.05% | -22.75% |
| 2026-04-13 | -4.20 | $0.90 | +6.56% | +6.53% | +2.40% | +4.87% | +37.16% | -19.21% |
| 2026-04-09 | -5.00 | $0.91 | +1.82% | +2.99% | +5.11% | +3.40% | +11.87% | -20.35% |
| 2026-03-27 | -5.01 | $0.95 | -7.53% | -11.00% | -9.43% | -2.27% | -1.38% | -28.09% |
| 2026-03-23 | -4.10 | $0.94 | +4.11% | +6.61% | -9.87% | -6.51% | +0.97% | -24.13% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.08 | $1.01 | -1.55% | -2.69% | -0.51% | -12.49% | -0.95% | -21.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-02: +19.72%
- 2026-08-19: +16.24%
- 2025-09-26: +14.47%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -32.85%
- 2025-10-10: -26.21%
- 2025-10-29: -21.14%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.