Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 3% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 3% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Sui
60 historical signal(s) detected for Sui; 32 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (28 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
2 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-22 | $3.6887 | $3.6113 | -2.10% | 97.90 |
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $3.3647 | $3.2815 | -2.47% | 95.48 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $3.4520 | $2.8231 | -18.22% | 78.08 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-22 | $2.8231 | $2.4902 | -11.79% | 68.88 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $2.4902 | $2.5073 | +0.69% | 69.35 |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-11-05 | $2.5073 | $1.9773 | -21.14% | 54.69 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-14 | $1.9667 | $1.8692 | -4.95% | 51.98 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-21 | $1.8692 | $1.4962 | -19.95% | 41.61 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $1.3458 | $1.6112 | +19.72% | 49.82 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $1.5600 | $1.4809 | -5.07% | 47.29 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $1.3624 | $1.4739 | +8.18% | 51.16 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-15 | $1.8198 | $1.8621 | +2.32% | 52.35 |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | $1.7918 | $1.5200 | -15.17% | 44.41 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $1.4198 | $1.1253 | -20.75% | 35.20 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2026-02-11 | $1.1312 | $0.9311 | -17.69% | 28.97 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-23 | $1.0063 | $0.9132 | -9.26% | 26.29 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.9132 | $0.9178 | +0.51% | 26.42 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $0.9284 | $1.0125 | +9.06% | 28.82 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $1.0077 | $1.0025 | -0.51% | 28.67 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $0.9523 | $0.8625 | -9.43% | 25.97 |
| 2026-04-09 | 2026-04-16 | $0.9141 | $0.9608 | +5.11% | 27.29 |
| 2026-04-19 | 2026-04-26 | $0.9575 | $0.9391 | -1.91% | 26.77 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-05-19 | $1.2890 | $1.0633 | -17.51% | 22.08 |
| 2026-05-23 | 2026-05-30 | $1.0456 | $0.9045 | -13.50% | 19.10 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $0.8069 | $0.7490 | -7.18% | 17.73 |
| 2026-06-18 | 2026-06-25 | $0.7668 | $0.6848 | -10.69% | 15.83 |
| 2026-07-25 | 2026-08-01 | $0.7104 | $0.6813 | -4.10% | 15.19 |
| 2026-08-19 | 2026-08-26 | $0.6514 | $0.7572 | +16.24% | 17.65 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $0.7437 | $0.7554 | +1.58% | 17.93 |
| 2026-09-05 | 2026-09-12 | $0.7554 | $0.7255 | -3.97% | 17.22 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.