Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
Sui has recorded 13 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.61% and 38.5% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -24.2% to -20.5% | 2 |
| -20.5% to -16.8% | 1 |
| -16.8% to -13.0% | 1 |
| -13.0% to -9.3% | 3 |
| -9.3% to -5.5% | 0 |
| -5.5% to -1.8% | 3 |
| -1.8% to +2.0% | 1 |
| +2.0% to +5.7% | 0 |
| +5.7% to +9.5% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 13 | -2.55% | -0.98% | 46.2% | 9.98% | -8.28% |
| 3 days | 13 | -1.19% | 0.16% | 46.2% | 14.63% | -12.76% |
| 7 days | 13 | -1.61% | -2.70% | 38.5% | 14.47% | -20.17% |
| 14 days | 13 | -9.73% | -8.30% | 15.4% | 9.45% | -24.25% |
| 30 days | 12 | -18.30% | -12.97% | 16.7% | 32.50% | -35.11% |
| 90 days | 12 | -27.75% | -24.64% | 8.3% | 38.09% | -54.84% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -15.38 | $0.69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -16.35 | $0.71 | +2.19% | +4.92% | +14.15% | -1.21% | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | -17.49 | $0.77 | -8.28% | -1.19% | -1.61% | -4.88% | -0.67% | -2.66% |
| 2026-06-02 | -15.63 | $0.88 | -8.13% | -12.76% | -14.05% | -9.73% | -18.63% | -19.06% |
| 2026-05-29 | -17.21 | $0.93 | -2.61% | -3.68% | -17.49% | -18.82% | -26.40% | -17.38% |
| 2026-05-18 | -21.58 | $1.04 | +1.87% | +3.27% | -1.24% | -14.30% | -23.75% | -35.15% |
| 2026-02-10 | -17.70 | $0.96 | -3.40% | -1.22% | +6.20% | -5.33% | +1.59% | +38.09% |
| 2026-02-01 | -23.13 | $1.17 | -3.83% | -3.32% | -12.42% | -9.88% | -19.44% | -21.47% |
| 2026-01-21 | -21.21 | $1.49 | +2.31% | +1.62% | -2.12% | -24.25% | -35.11% | -36.73% |
| 2025-12-19 | -16.52 | $1.35 | +9.98% | +7.38% | +1.17% | +9.45% | +32.50% | -25.17% |
| 2025-11-15 | -19.01 | $1.74 | +1.42% | -7.21% | -20.17% | -12.60% | -10.66% | -45.33% |
| 2025-11-04 | -20.72 | $2.07 | -4.40% | -4.91% | +4.60% | -21.87% | -17.97% | -45.59% |
| 2025-10-11 | -27.13 | $2.61 | -2.55% | +14.63% | -6.55% | -3.35% | -17.97% | -30.34% |
| 2025-09-26 | -19.57 | $3.13 | +2.77% | +4.59% | +14.47% | +8.81% | -19.14% | -54.84% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +14.47%
- 2026-08-31: +14.15%
- 2026-02-10: +6.20%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -20.17%
- 2026-05-29: -17.49%
- 2026-06-02: -14.05%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.