Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Stellar has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.46% and 30.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -9.3% to -7.5% | 1 |
| -7.5% to -5.8% | 1 |
| -5.8% to -4.0% | 0 |
| -4.0% to -2.2% | 3 |
| -2.2% to -0.4% | 6 |
| -0.4% to +1.4% | 1 |
| +1.4% to +3.1% | 4 |
| +3.1% to +4.9% | 1 |
| +4.9% to +6.7% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.67% | -0.09% | 40.0% | 6.71% | -9.33% |
| 3 days | 20 | -0.76% | -0.97% | 45.0% | 14.97% | -11.19% |
| 7 days | 20 | -1.46% | 0.04% | 30.0% | 22.37% | -17.81% |
| 14 days | 19 | -3.30% | -2.03% | 42.1% | 12.83% | -18.51% |
| 30 days | 18 | -3.07% | -7.45% | 38.9% | 8.80% | -38.01% |
| 90 days | 17 | -9.35% | -3.13% | 35.3% | 67.07% | -47.21% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.18 | -2.73% | +1.56% | -5.34% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.17 | +6.71% | +14.97% | +8.99% | +3.14% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $0.18 | +2.13% | +0.59% | +4.13% | -5.64% | -13.56% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $0.19 | -1.88% | -0.34% | +22.37% | -6.62% | -2.72% | -5.42% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $0.21 | -1.56% | -11.19% | -7.20% | +1.97% | -8.26% | -10.57% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.16 | -0.87% | +8.32% | +11.22% | +6.37% | +1.65% | +19.23% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $0.16 | -3.68% | -5.15% | -5.26% | +9.48% | -3.24% | +22.26% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $0.17 | +4.13% | +4.08% | +0.25% | -6.69% | +5.75% | +25.56% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $0.15 | +5.11% | +5.86% | +16.41% | +10.77% | +4.46% | +36.40% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.16 | -1.88% | -5.80% | -0.23% | +6.35% | +2.06% | +39.19% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $0.16 | -2.76% | +0.64% | -3.08% | +12.83% | +8.80% | +67.07% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.16 | -0.12% | -1.85% | -1.89% | -2.11% | +2.76% | -9.35% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $0.16 | +5.95% | +3.15% | -1.04% | -3.59% | +2.91% | -1.53% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $0.18 | -9.33% | -10.38% | -7.75% | -8.71% | -16.92% | -11.31% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $0.25 | -6.19% | -10.52% | -17.81% | -17.41% | -38.01% | -38.14% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $0.22 | -0.47% | +0.52% | -2.66% | +0.38% | -2.90% | -24.57% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $0.25 | +1.47% | -5.85% | -0.52% | -13.82% | -18.12% | -38.91% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $0.26 | -1.17% | -1.75% | -0.09% | -3.30% | -17.50% | -42.07% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $0.34 | +2.79% | -5.01% | -7.07% | -3.47% | -17.70% | -33.89% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $0.40 | +2.46% | -1.17% | -2.58% | -18.51% | -23.54% | -47.21% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-12: +22.37%
- 2026-03-10: +16.41%
- 2026-04-14: +11.22%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -17.81%
- 2026-02-07: -7.75%
- 2026-06-08: -7.20%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.