Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Stellar
20 historical signal(s) detected for Stellar; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $0.3987 | $0.3885 | -2.58% | 97.42 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $0.3421 | $0.3179 | -7.07% | 90.54 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $0.2587 | $0.2584 | -0.09% | 90.46 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $0.2192 | $0.2134 | -2.66% | 88.05 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $0.2527 | $0.2077 | -17.81% | 72.37 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $0.1784 | $0.1646 | -7.75% | 66.76 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $0.1646 | $0.1629 | -1.04% | 66.06 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $0.1627 | $0.1596 | -1.89% | 64.82 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $0.1596 | $0.1592 | -0.23% | 64.67 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $0.1670 | $0.1675 | +0.25% | 64.83 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $0.1635 | $0.1549 | -5.26% | 61.42 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $0.2057 | $0.1909 | -7.20% | 57.00 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $0.1844 | $0.1920 | +4.13% | 59.35 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $0.1701 | $0.1854 | +8.99% | 64.69 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $0.1845 | $0.1747 | -5.34% | 61.23 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.