Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Stellar has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.00% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.3% to -9.9% | 1 |
| -9.9% to -7.6% | 1 |
| -7.6% to -5.2% | 0 |
| -5.2% to -2.9% | 3 |
| -2.9% to -0.5% | 3 |
| -0.5% to +1.8% | 5 |
| +1.8% to +4.2% | 3 |
| +4.2% to +6.5% | 2 |
| +6.5% to +8.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | 0.03% | -0.37% | 52.6% | 8.86% | -12.27% |
| 3 days | 19 | -0.23% | -0.99% | 47.4% | 9.91% | -16.99% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.00% | -1.63% | 52.6% | 16.23% | -18.95% |
| 14 days | 19 | -2.29% | -3.40% | 26.3% | 13.52% | -21.36% |
| 30 days | 18 | -7.72% | -7.04% | 27.8% | 15.35% | -23.39% |
| 90 days | 18 | -18.66% | -14.39% | 22.2% | 32.30% | -39.65% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $0.18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $0.18 | +0.08% | -1.26% | +0.00% | -0.70% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $0.20 | +4.65% | -0.23% | -7.39% | +7.42% | +0.14% | -9.07% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $0.24 | -8.47% | -16.99% | -16.57% | -12.07% | -18.86% | -28.04% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $0.15 | +3.83% | +4.94% | +10.81% | +13.52% | +7.81% | +23.78% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $0.17 | -3.86% | -5.41% | -6.03% | -10.85% | -2.29% | +6.51% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $0.17 | -2.56% | -5.37% | +4.49% | -0.26% | +2.71% | +27.56% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $0.15 | -1.27% | -0.96% | +7.46% | +8.64% | +7.36% | +32.30% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $0.15 | +0.78% | +7.86% | +2.40% | -1.70% | +15.35% | -2.00% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $0.18 | -3.93% | +0.13% | -10.80% | -6.74% | -12.13% | -11.58% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.20 | -12.27% | -10.72% | -18.95% | -12.63% | -22.05% | -20.05% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.20 | +5.82% | -12.07% | -17.18% | -21.36% | -19.84% | -17.28% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $0.21 | +2.63% | +2.20% | +0.49% | -14.19% | -23.39% | -16.28% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $0.24 | -0.12% | +0.41% | -0.51% | -8.58% | -2.53% | -34.70% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $0.23 | +8.86% | +7.70% | +2.91% | -5.76% | -14.04% | -34.00% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.24 | -2.20% | +4.42% | +7.94% | +6.41% | -7.86% | -31.83% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $0.26 | +0.03% | -4.88% | -10.72% | -2.29% | -11.55% | -39.63% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $0.28 | -2.95% | -3.12% | +7.98% | -11.28% | -7.09% | -37.04% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $0.35 | +2.91% | +4.60% | +16.23% | +7.99% | -7.58% | -39.65% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +16.23%
- 2026-04-13: +10.81%
- 2025-11-04: +7.98%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -18.95%
- 2026-01-30: -17.18%
- 2026-06-02: -16.57%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.