Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Stellar
20 historical signal(s) detected for Stellar; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $0.3515 | $0.4085 | +16.23% | 116.23 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $0.3199 | $0.3087 | -3.52% | 112.14 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.2781 | $0.3003 | +7.98% | 121.09 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $0.2594 | $0.2316 | -10.72% | 108.10 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $0.2340 | $0.2408 | +2.91% | 111.25 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.2077 | $0.2087 | +0.49% | 111.79 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.1992 | $0.1649 | -17.18% | 92.58 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.1508 | $0.1544 | +2.40% | 94.81 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $0.1523 | $0.1636 | +7.46% | 101.88 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $0.1697 | $0.1773 | +4.49% | 106.46 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $0.1739 | $0.1634 | -6.03% | 100.04 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $0.1505 | $0.1668 | +10.81% | 110.86 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $0.2427 | $0.2025 | -16.57% | 92.50 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $0.1795 | $0.1795 | +0.00% | 92.50 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.