Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 2x Volume Spike?
Stellar has recorded 13 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -7.75% and 15.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -15.2% to -10.4% | 3 |
| -10.4% to -5.6% | 4 |
| -5.6% to -0.9% | 3 |
| -0.9% to +3.9% | 2 |
| +3.9% to +8.6% | 0 |
| +8.6% to +13.4% | 0 |
| +13.4% to +18.1% | 0 |
| +18.1% to +22.9% | 0 |
| +22.9% to +27.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -1.17% | 0.25% | 35.7% | 24.25% | -9.33% |
| 3 days | 13 | -4.16% | 0.95% | 38.5% | 40.51% | -10.38% |
| 7 days | 13 | -7.75% | -4.41% | 15.4% | 27.63% | -15.15% |
| 14 days | 12 | -8.92% | -6.80% | 16.7% | 11.63% | -18.22% |
| 30 days | 11 | -16.92% | -13.34% | 18.2% | 13.42% | -32.43% |
| 90 days | 8 | -22.48% | -19.10% | 12.5% | 11.52% | -35.48% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 2.31 | $0.19 | -8.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 2.25 | $0.19 | -2.99% | -9.75% | -0.99% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-21 | 3.31 | $0.18 | +11.16% | +9.96% | +3.26% | +1.64% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 3.83 | $0.19 | +2.29% | +0.07% | -0.68% | -2.15% | -11.72% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 2.82 | $0.20 | -5.62% | -6.85% | -9.67% | -5.79% | -17.55% | — |
| 2026-07-05 | 2.80 | $0.21 | -1.62% | -8.65% | -9.80% | -9.14% | -17.13% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 3.34 | $0.21 | +1.44% | +9.83% | -5.12% | -18.22% | -11.75% | -16.95% |
| 2026-05-28 | 5.20 | $0.16 | +24.25% | +40.51% | +27.63% | +11.63% | +8.45% | +11.52% |
| 2026-05-11 | 2.24 | $0.17 | -0.66% | -6.27% | -11.96% | -13.07% | +13.42% | -3.01% |
| 2026-02-07 | 2.04 | $0.18 | -9.33% | -10.38% | -7.75% | -8.71% | -16.92% | -11.31% |
| 2026-01-15 | 2.25 | $0.24 | -3.67% | -2.77% | -10.09% | -11.29% | -30.56% | -34.63% |
| 2026-01-06 | 2.99 | $0.25 | -3.92% | -9.11% | -13.47% | -14.91% | -32.43% | -35.48% |
| 2025-10-29 | 3.81 | $0.32 | -0.72% | -4.16% | -15.15% | -11.51% | -19.65% | -34.91% |
| 2025-10-11 | 3.43 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-28: +27.63%
- 2026-08-21: +3.26%
- 2026-07-10: -0.68%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-29: -15.15%
- 2026-01-06: -13.47%
- 2026-05-11: -11.96%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.