Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 1.5x Volume Spike?
Stellar has recorded 25 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -5.12% and 16.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -17.8% to -12.8% | 4 |
| -12.8% to -7.7% | 7 |
| -7.7% to -2.7% | 6 |
| -2.7% to +2.4% | 4 |
| +2.4% to +7.4% | 1 |
| +7.4% to +12.5% | 2 |
| +12.5% to +17.5% | 0 |
| +17.5% to +22.6% | 0 |
| +22.6% to +27.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 26 | -1.03% | -0.24% | 30.8% | 24.25% | -8.15% |
| 3 days | 25 | -2.01% | 0.55% | 36.0% | 40.51% | -14.03% |
| 7 days | 25 | -5.12% | -4.63% | 16.0% | 27.63% | -17.81% |
| 14 days | 23 | -9.14% | -7.89% | 17.4% | 11.63% | -21.90% |
| 30 days | 22 | -13.51% | -13.90% | 13.6% | 13.42% | -38.01% |
| 90 days | 18 | -19.79% | -16.64% | 22.2% | 11.52% | -42.17% |
Historical occurrences
26 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 2.31 | $0.19 | -8.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-08 | 2.25 | $0.19 | -2.99% | -9.75% | -0.99% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 1.56 | $0.18 | -2.73% | +1.56% | -5.34% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 1.74 | $0.17 | +6.71% | +14.97% | +8.99% | +3.14% | — | — |
| 2026-07-10 | 3.83 | $0.19 | +2.29% | +0.07% | -0.68% | -2.15% | -11.72% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | 2.82 | $0.20 | -5.62% | -6.85% | -9.67% | -5.79% | -17.55% | — |
| 2026-07-05 | 2.80 | $0.21 | -1.62% | -8.65% | -9.80% | -9.14% | -17.13% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 1.77 | $0.20 | +1.05% | +4.90% | -8.02% | -4.36% | -12.64% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 3.34 | $0.21 | +1.44% | +9.83% | -5.12% | -18.22% | -11.75% | -16.95% |
| 2026-05-28 | 5.20 | $0.16 | +24.25% | +40.51% | +27.63% | +11.63% | +8.45% | +11.52% |
| 2026-05-11 | 2.24 | $0.17 | -0.66% | -6.27% | -11.96% | -13.07% | +13.42% | -3.01% |
| 2026-04-22 | 1.75 | $0.18 | -1.34% | -3.30% | -9.57% | -10.73% | -18.26% | +5.21% |
| 2026-04-18 | 1.52 | $0.17 | -2.18% | -0.27% | -0.67% | -8.45% | -14.39% | +6.11% |
| 2026-03-26 | 1.81 | $0.18 | -1.96% | -5.19% | -4.55% | -11.17% | -2.37% | +9.94% |
| 2026-02-16 | 1.68 | $0.17 | -0.66% | -5.56% | -11.77% | -9.65% | +1.73% | -11.22% |
| 2026-02-06 | 1.80 | $0.16 | +8.18% | -2.01% | -5.04% | -3.55% | -8.86% | -1.92% |
| 2026-01-31 | 1.52 | $0.21 | -5.29% | -14.03% | -15.34% | -21.90% | -26.72% | -24.82% |
| 2026-01-22 | 1.61 | $0.21 | -0.51% | -0.67% | -1.34% | -19.67% | -23.57% | -15.99% |
| 2026-01-20 | 1.73 | $0.22 | -3.68% | -1.65% | -3.96% | -15.96% | -25.13% | -22.63% |
| 2026-01-14 | 1.60 | $0.25 | -6.19% | -10.52% | -17.81% | -17.41% | -38.01% | -38.14% |
| 2026-01-06 | 2.99 | $0.25 | -3.92% | -9.11% | -13.47% | -14.91% | -32.43% | -35.48% |
| 2026-01-03 | 1.82 | $0.22 | +0.84% | +15.14% | +3.62% | +2.73% | -20.42% | -25.76% |
| 2025-11-22 | 1.54 | $0.23 | -0.69% | +10.09% | +9.44% | +3.54% | -6.54% | -31.31% |
| 2025-11-14 | 1.73 | $0.27 | -3.25% | -5.24% | -11.69% | -4.67% | -11.28% | -42.17% |
| 2025-10-29 | 3.81 | $0.32 | -0.72% | -4.16% | -15.15% | -11.51% | -19.65% | -34.91% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-05-28: +27.63%
- 2025-11-22: +9.44%
- 2026-08-20: +8.99%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -17.81%
- 2026-01-31: -15.34%
- 2025-10-29: -15.15%
How this study works
Daily volume is compared with the median of the preceding 30 complete observations.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.