Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Stellar has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.00% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -11.2% to -8.2% | 1 |
| -8.2% to -5.2% | 2 |
| -5.2% to -2.2% | 5 |
| -2.2% to +0.8% | 5 |
| +0.8% to +3.8% | 1 |
| +3.8% to +6.8% | 2 |
| +6.8% to +9.8% | 1 |
| +9.8% to +12.8% | 1 |
| +12.8% to +15.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | 0.08% | 0.72% | 57.9% | 15.23% | -4.15% |
| 3 days | 19 | -1.26% | 0.01% | 36.8% | 15.77% | -11.19% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.00% | 1.28% | 52.6% | 16.23% | -10.72% |
| 14 days | 19 | -2.19% | 2.06% | 31.6% | 74.19% | -14.19% |
| 30 days | 17 | -7.58% | -4.67% | 23.5% | 45.06% | -29.27% |
| 90 days | 16 | -18.15% | -18.68% | 12.5% | 6.01% | -39.65% |
Historical occurrences
19 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | -12.52 | $0.17 | +1.48% | +0.48% | +7.31% | +1.48% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -11.05 | $0.18 | +0.08% | -1.26% | +0.00% | -0.70% | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -17.77 | $0.19 | -3.41% | -6.25% | +6.34% | -2.19% | -3.98% | — |
| 2026-06-14 | -11.96 | $0.19 | +2.08% | +15.77% | +15.54% | -7.15% | -3.41% | -4.67% |
| 2026-06-08 | -20.87 | $0.21 | -1.56% | -11.19% | -7.20% | +1.97% | -8.26% | -10.57% |
| 2026-06-06 | -21.89 | $0.20 | +4.65% | -0.23% | -7.39% | +7.42% | +0.14% | -9.07% |
| 2026-05-18 | -11.96 | $0.15 | -1.45% | -3.72% | -1.26% | +74.19% | +45.06% | +5.85% |
| 2026-02-23 | -11.77 | $0.15 | +0.78% | +7.86% | +2.40% | -1.70% | +15.35% | -2.00% |
| 2026-02-10 | -11.74 | $0.16 | -0.60% | -2.06% | +6.17% | -4.95% | -0.43% | +6.01% |
| 2026-02-02 | -13.98 | $0.18 | +3.47% | -2.24% | -7.71% | -2.40% | -13.60% | -8.68% |
| 2026-01-21 | -17.81 | $0.21 | +2.63% | +2.20% | +0.49% | -14.19% | -23.39% | -16.28% |
| 2026-01-13 | -13.47 | $0.22 | +15.23% | +4.14% | -1.67% | -5.56% | -29.27% | -31.34% |
| 2025-12-17 | -13.37 | $0.22 | -4.15% | -0.12% | -1.09% | -4.10% | +4.03% | -20.02% |
| 2025-11-20 | -11.28 | $0.25 | -3.78% | -6.55% | +5.10% | +5.01% | -10.92% | -32.47% |
| 2025-11-17 | -10.85 | $0.25 | -2.88% | -3.14% | -2.68% | -2.25% | -13.62% | -31.37% |
| 2025-11-15 | -11.42 | $0.26 | +0.03% | -4.88% | -10.72% | -2.29% | -11.55% | -39.63% |
| 2025-11-04 | -13.79 | $0.28 | -2.95% | -3.12% | +7.98% | -11.28% | -7.09% | -37.04% |
| 2025-10-11 | -21.35 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
| 2025-09-26 | -11.35 | $0.35 | +2.91% | +4.60% | +16.23% | +7.99% | -7.58% | -39.65% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +16.23%
- 2026-06-14: +15.54%
- 2025-11-04: +7.98%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -10.72%
- 2026-02-02: -7.71%
- 2026-06-06: -7.39%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.