Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Stellar
19 historical signal(s) detected for Stellar; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (4 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $0.3515 | $0.4085 | +16.23% | 116.23 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $0.3199 | $0.3087 | -3.52% | 112.14 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.2781 | $0.3003 | +7.98% | 121.09 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $0.2594 | $0.2316 | -10.72% | 108.10 |
| 2025-12-17 | 2025-12-24 | $0.2195 | $0.2171 | -1.09% | 106.93 |
| 2026-01-13 | 2026-01-20 | $0.2193 | $0.2156 | -1.67% | 105.14 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.2077 | $0.2087 | +0.49% | 105.65 |
| 2026-02-02 | 2026-02-09 | $0.1751 | $0.1616 | -7.71% | 97.51 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2026-02-17 | $0.1599 | $0.1698 | +6.17% | 103.53 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.1508 | $0.1544 | +2.40% | 106.02 |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-25 | $0.1492 | $0.1474 | -1.26% | 104.68 |
| 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-13 | $0.2029 | $0.1879 | -7.39% | 96.95 |
| 2026-06-14 | 2026-06-21 | $0.1870 | $0.2160 | +15.54% | 112.01 |
| 2026-06-25 | 2026-07-02 | $0.1852 | $0.1969 | +6.34% | 119.11 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $0.1795 | $0.1795 | +0.00% | 119.11 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.