Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Solana has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.05% and 45.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -8.2% to -6.2% | 1 |
| -6.2% to -4.1% | 3 |
| -4.1% to -2.1% | 3 |
| -2.1% to -0.1% | 5 |
| -0.1% to +1.9% | 0 |
| +1.9% to +4.0% | 6 |
| +4.0% to +6.0% | 0 |
| +6.0% to +8.0% | 1 |
| +8.0% to +10.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | 0.14% | 0.47% | 50.0% | 5.82% | -3.74% |
| 3 days | 20 | -0.43% | -0.34% | 40.0% | 10.02% | -8.18% |
| 7 days | 20 | -1.05% | 0.09% | 45.0% | 19.59% | -13.47% |
| 14 days | 19 | -1.73% | -0.63% | 42.1% | 17.65% | -12.72% |
| 30 days | 18 | -5.44% | -4.68% | 33.3% | 21.32% | -46.05% |
| 90 days | 17 | -18.59% | -11.53% | 23.5% | 55.31% | -44.65% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $103.96 | -1.95% | +2.43% | -5.13% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $85.33 | +2.72% | +10.02% | +19.59% | +17.65% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $77.81 | -0.73% | -3.61% | +0.36% | -5.19% | -2.06% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $66.82 | -0.06% | +6.59% | +4.24% | +1.22% | +14.82% | +52.01% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $66.42 | +0.57% | -4.88% | +7.22% | +9.03% | +21.32% | +55.31% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $86.64 | -3.25% | +2.84% | -1.55% | -2.11% | +5.17% | -11.27% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $85.74 | -3.74% | -1.08% | -2.24% | +0.36% | +3.14% | -4.49% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $91.62 | -0.72% | -5.52% | -10.01% | -12.53% | -5.12% | -20.95% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $85.02 | +1.03% | +2.23% | +12.79% | +7.76% | -2.93% | -21.87% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $91.07 | -2.33% | -8.18% | -4.96% | -1.05% | -11.68% | -18.59% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $86.75 | +0.35% | +2.54% | -1.99% | +10.54% | -6.38% | -5.09% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $88.08 | -2.27% | -3.87% | +3.40% | -1.73% | -5.76% | -5.01% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $84.46 | +4.39% | +2.51% | +0.40% | -2.86% | +9.93% | +9.07% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $86.98 | +0.65% | -0.20% | -2.90% | -2.51% | -5.86% | +1.67% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $145.74 | +0.53% | -0.57% | -13.47% | -12.72% | -46.05% | -40.55% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $126.19 | -0.33% | -0.29% | -3.17% | +4.85% | +7.38% | -29.36% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $138.67 | +4.44% | -3.92% | -0.56% | -6.90% | -8.45% | -37.44% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $143.02 | -1.52% | -4.89% | +1.27% | -4.65% | -14.56% | -44.65% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $197.21 | +5.78% | -1.64% | -4.78% | +1.42% | -21.58% | -31.12% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $221.88 | +5.82% | +2.76% | +3.25% | -12.57% | -15.64% | -43.74% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +19.59%
- 2026-03-10: +12.79%
- 2026-06-08: +7.22%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -13.47%
- 2026-03-24: -10.01%
- 2026-09-04: -5.13%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.