Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Solana
20 historical signal(s) detected for Solana; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $221.8779 | $229.0916 | +3.25% | 103.25 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $197.2147 | $187.7920 | -4.78% | 98.32 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $143.0183 | $144.8290 | +1.27% | 99.56 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $126.1940 | $122.1919 | -3.17% | 96.41 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $145.7386 | $126.1076 | -13.47% | 83.42 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $86.9776 | $84.4579 | -2.90% | 81.00 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $84.4579 | $84.7978 | +0.40% | 81.33 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $88.0792 | $91.0730 | +3.40% | 84.09 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $91.0730 | $86.5582 | -4.96% | 79.92 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $91.6200 | $82.4461 | -10.01% | 71.92 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $85.7378 | $83.8194 | -2.24% | 70.31 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $66.4248 | $71.2182 | +7.22% | 75.39 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $77.8086 | $78.0882 | +0.36% | 75.66 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $85.3331 | $102.0489 | +19.59% | 90.48 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $103.9605 | $98.6313 | -5.13% | 85.84 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.