Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Solana has recorded 46 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.15% and 34.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -33.3% to -25.4% | 3 |
| -25.4% to -17.4% | 4 |
| -17.4% to -9.5% | 6 |
| -9.5% to -1.5% | 12 |
| -1.5% to +6.4% | 12 |
| +6.4% to +14.4% | 7 |
| +14.4% to +22.3% | 1 |
| +22.3% to +30.3% | 0 |
| +30.3% to +38.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 46 | -2.02% | -1.26% | 28.3% | 11.27% | -11.61% |
| 3 days | 46 | -3.32% | -1.77% | 39.1% | 11.26% | -14.42% |
| 7 days | 46 | -2.15% | -2.68% | 34.8% | 24.37% | -33.49% |
| 14 days | 46 | -2.37% | -2.91% | 41.3% | 38.20% | -33.30% |
| 30 days | 45 | -4.61% | -2.84% | 37.8% | 37.64% | -33.29% |
| 90 days | 40 | -21.59% | -16.79% | 22.5% | 48.66% | -46.80% |
Historical occurrences
46 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | -0.01 | $105.59 | -3.70% | -5.33% | -2.30% | -3.64% | — | — |
| 2026-08-15 | -0.01 | $75.34 | -0.07% | +0.85% | +24.37% | +38.20% | +31.84% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.01 | $74.14 | -0.50% | +0.43% | -0.88% | +2.40% | +37.64% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.01 | $77.94 | -2.68% | -4.44% | -5.55% | -5.07% | +20.21% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -0.01 | $67.95 | -0.47% | +3.61% | +13.85% | +14.48% | +8.77% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.02 | $71.85 | -3.12% | -5.87% | +4.41% | +13.97% | +8.48% | — |
| 2026-06-14 | -0.01 | $68.88 | +3.39% | +6.65% | +6.24% | +2.21% | +8.79% | +48.66% |
| 2026-06-03 | -0.02 | $74.14 | -3.50% | -14.17% | -12.43% | -0.91% | +8.74% | +38.94% |
| 2026-05-26 | -0.01 | $84.98 | -1.54% | -3.45% | -4.49% | -21.39% | -20.04% | +12.27% |
| 2026-05-23 | -0.01 | $84.31 | +1.61% | +0.79% | -2.77% | -24.53% | -14.10% | +3.96% |
| 2026-05-16 | -0.02 | $89.20 | -3.01% | -4.35% | -5.48% | -8.10% | -20.16% | -14.57% |
| 2026-05-13 | -0.01 | $94.29 | -3.36% | -5.39% | -10.71% | -11.26% | -29.13% | -19.47% |
| 2026-04-27 | -0.01 | $86.94 | -2.45% | -4.49% | -3.56% | +10.90% | -3.76% | -14.33% |
| 2026-04-12 | -0.01 | $84.93 | -4.06% | -1.31% | +1.45% | +1.49% | +14.51% | -8.08% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.01 | $80.14 | +6.98% | +3.94% | +8.10% | +6.43% | +11.26% | +1.71% |
| 2026-04-02 | -0.02 | $81.21 | -2.66% | -0.38% | +1.62% | +4.62% | +3.12% | -9.42% |
| 2026-03-26 | -0.02 | $91.80 | -5.70% | -10.55% | -11.53% | -10.10% | -6.08% | -24.17% |
| 2026-03-24 | -0.01 | $91.62 | -0.72% | -5.52% | -10.01% | -12.53% | -5.12% | -20.95% |
| 2026-03-21 | -0.01 | $89.88 | -3.27% | +1.93% | -7.65% | -10.51% | -7.09% | -22.51% |
| 2026-03-19 | -0.01 | $90.12 | -1.08% | -3.52% | +1.87% | -9.88% | -1.43% | -18.48% |
| 2026-03-15 | -0.01 | $88.22 | +5.23% | +7.55% | -1.45% | -6.93% | -1.80% | -24.31% |
| 2026-03-11 | -0.01 | $85.90 | +0.77% | +2.61% | +10.47% | +5.89% | -3.02% | -22.23% |
| 2026-03-05 | -0.01 | $91.07 | -2.33% | -8.18% | -4.96% | -1.05% | -11.68% | -18.59% |
| 2026-03-03 | -0.01 | $86.75 | +0.35% | +2.54% | -1.99% | +10.54% | -6.38% | -5.09% |
| 2026-02-27 | -0.02 | $86.08 | -4.69% | -2.72% | +3.34% | +0.97% | -4.61% | -4.35% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-15: +24.37%
- 2026-06-25: +13.85%
- 2026-03-11: +10.47%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.49%
- 2025-10-29: -20.12%
- 2025-11-10: -16.59%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.