Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Falls to -0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding falls to -0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Solana

46 historical signal(s) detected for Solana; 28 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (18 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades28
Win rate35.7%
Average return / trade-2.42%
Compounded total return-55.38%
Max drawdown-64.95%
Buy & hold, same period-56.37%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-09-22 2025-09-29 $236.4513 $210.7475 -10.87% 89.13
2025-09-30 2025-10-07 $212.9237 $232.6334 +9.26% 97.38
2025-10-11 2025-10-18 $188.7926 $182.1459 -3.52% 93.95
2025-10-29 2025-11-05 $194.2987 $155.1981 -20.12% 75.04
2025-11-10 2025-11-17 $164.4108 $137.1390 -16.59% 62.60
2025-11-20 2025-11-27 $136.7170 $143.0183 +4.61% 65.48
2025-11-28 2025-12-05 $140.8465 $139.0163 -1.30% 64.63
2025-12-11 2025-12-18 $136.3652 $123.1722 -9.67% 58.38
2025-12-18 2025-12-25 $123.1722 $122.4602 -0.58% 58.04
2026-01-26 2026-02-02 $118.6620 $100.8811 -14.98% 49.34
2026-02-06 2026-02-13 $78.4043 $78.6297 +0.29% 49.49
2026-02-15 2026-02-22 $88.1631 $85.4564 -3.07% 47.97
2026-02-22 2026-03-01 $85.4564 $84.6749 -0.91% 47.53
2026-03-03 2026-03-10 $86.7510 $85.0209 -1.99% 46.58
2026-03-11 2026-03-18 $85.8956 $94.8883 +10.47% 51.46
2026-03-19 2026-03-26 $90.1155 $91.7964 +1.87% 52.42
2026-03-26 2026-04-02 $91.7964 $81.2120 -11.53% 46.37
2026-04-02 2026-04-09 $81.2120 $82.5286 +1.62% 47.12
2026-04-12 2026-04-19 $84.9321 $86.1659 +1.45% 47.81
2026-04-27 2026-05-04 $86.9373 $83.8417 -3.56% 46.11
2026-05-13 2026-05-20 $94.2851 $84.1908 -10.71% 41.17
2026-05-23 2026-05-30 $84.3119 $81.9770 -2.77% 40.03
2026-06-03 2026-06-10 $74.1390 $64.9238 -12.43% 35.05
2026-06-14 2026-06-21 $68.8799 $73.1800 +6.24% 37.24
2026-06-23 2026-06-30 $71.8483 $75.0150 +4.41% 38.88
2026-07-23 2026-07-30 $77.9393 $73.6112 -5.55% 36.72
2026-08-15 2026-08-22 $75.3355 $93.6938 +24.37% 45.67
2026-08-30 2026-09-06 $105.5939 $103.1664 -2.30% 44.62

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Solana ยท Read the full methodology