Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 3% One-Day Rise?
Solana has recorded 53 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.62% and 37.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -51.5% to -39.6% | 11 |
| -39.6% to -27.8% | 10 |
| -27.8% to -15.9% | 9 |
| -15.9% to -4.0% | 5 |
| -4.0% to +7.8% | 2 |
| +7.8% to +19.7% | 1 |
| +19.7% to +31.6% | 0 |
| +31.6% to +43.4% | 0 |
| +43.4% to +55.3% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 55 | 0.08% | 0.04% | 50.9% | 6.99% | -6.48% |
| 3 days | 54 | -0.04% | -0.40% | 50.0% | 10.43% | -24.89% |
| 7 days | 53 | -1.62% | -1.48% | 37.7% | 19.59% | -16.85% |
| 14 days | 51 | -2.86% | -3.92% | 31.4% | 23.60% | -30.10% |
| 30 days | 47 | -8.45% | -9.82% | 23.4% | 36.61% | -46.05% |
| 90 days | 41 | -29.36% | -21.81% | 12.2% | 55.31% | -51.51% |
Historical occurrences
55 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | 3.21 | $102.51 | -5.50% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-12 | 3.82 | $102.39 | -0.63% | +0.12% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 3.22 | $106.49 | -2.55% | -4.62% | -6.73% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-04 | 3.56 | $103.96 | -1.95% | +2.43% | -5.13% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-27 | 5.67 | $102.05 | +6.99% | +3.47% | -1.62% | -0.47% | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | 3.63 | $98.87 | -2.32% | +10.43% | +4.19% | +4.96% | — | — |
| 2026-08-22 | 6.89 | $93.69 | +0.20% | +5.52% | +11.12% | +8.79% | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 10.82 | $85.33 | +2.72% | +10.02% | +19.59% | +17.65% | — | — |
| 2026-08-09 | 3.18 | $75.96 | +0.33% | +0.34% | -0.90% | +23.60% | +36.61% | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 3.84 | $77.81 | -0.73% | -3.61% | +0.36% | -5.19% | -2.06% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 5.16 | $77.36 | +4.21% | +5.61% | +0.55% | -0.16% | -5.90% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | 5.25 | $75.01 | -1.93% | +7.47% | +9.16% | -0.11% | -1.87% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 6.18 | $71.81 | -1.96% | +4.46% | +14.59% | +8.71% | +6.79% | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 5.03 | $73.18 | -1.03% | -4.88% | -3.79% | +11.65% | +6.24% | — |
| 2026-06-14 | 3.15 | $68.88 | +3.39% | +6.65% | +6.24% | +2.21% | +8.79% | +48.66% |
| 2026-06-12 | 5.75 | $66.82 | -0.06% | +6.59% | +4.24% | +1.22% | +14.82% | +52.01% |
| 2026-06-08 | 6.83 | $66.42 | +0.57% | -4.88% | +7.22% | +9.03% | +21.32% | +55.31% |
| 2026-05-11 | 3.51 | $96.41 | +0.87% | -5.49% | -11.65% | -11.60% | -32.66% | -21.21% |
| 2026-05-09 | 4.04 | $92.01 | +1.24% | +5.70% | -3.05% | -8.36% | -27.80% | -21.06% |
| 2026-05-07 | 3.31 | $89.17 | -0.82% | +4.46% | +2.19% | -3.48% | -28.63% | -17.33% |
| 2026-04-17 | 4.87 | $89.10 | -0.30% | -6.27% | -3.32% | -6.80% | -2.89% | -13.31% |
| 2026-04-14 | 6.32 | $86.64 | -3.25% | +2.84% | -1.55% | -2.11% | +5.17% | -11.27% |
| 2026-04-08 | 6.98 | $85.74 | -3.74% | -1.08% | -2.24% | +0.36% | +3.14% | -4.49% |
| 2026-03-24 | 5.91 | $91.62 | -0.72% | -5.52% | -10.01% | -12.53% | -5.12% | -20.95% |
| 2026-03-16 | 5.23 | $92.84 | +3.29% | -2.94% | -6.82% | -12.34% | -9.72% | -25.81% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +19.59%
- 2026-06-27: +14.59%
- 2025-09-27: +13.78%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-03: -16.85%
- 2025-11-10: -16.59%
- 2026-01-27: -15.94%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.