Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 10% Seven-Day Drop?
Solana has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.37% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -43.4% to -34.3% | 4 |
| -34.3% to -25.1% | 3 |
| -25.1% to -16.0% | 3 |
| -16.0% to -6.8% | 3 |
| -6.8% to +2.3% | 0 |
| +2.3% to +11.5% | 0 |
| +11.5% to +20.6% | 0 |
| +20.6% to +29.8% | 0 |
| +29.8% to +38.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -2.47% | -2.06% | 35.7% | 5.57% | -8.61% |
| 3 days | 14 | -3.54% | -2.63% | 28.6% | 10.49% | -14.17% |
| 7 days | 14 | -1.37% | -3.21% | 50.0% | 4.85% | -17.01% |
| 14 days | 14 | -0.43% | -4.62% | 50.0% | 8.25% | -31.76% |
| 30 days | 14 | -10.62% | -10.60% | 28.6% | 20.20% | -38.21% |
| 90 days | 14 | -25.79% | -22.77% | 7.1% | 38.94% | -43.43% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -11.39 | $74.14 | -3.50% | -14.17% | -12.43% | -0.91% | +8.74% | +38.94% |
| 2026-05-18 | -11.65 | $85.18 | +0.16% | +1.03% | +0.05% | -3.34% | -13.76% | -11.63% |
| 2026-04-02 | -11.53 | $81.21 | -2.66% | -0.38% | +1.62% | +4.62% | +3.12% | -9.42% |
| 2026-03-31 | -10.01 | $82.45 | +0.72% | -4.12% | -2.79% | +5.08% | +0.71% | -13.55% |
| 2026-02-01 | -17.19 | $105.49 | -4.37% | -7.45% | -17.01% | -16.43% | -17.77% | -20.62% |
| 2026-01-24 | -12.05 | $127.45 | -0.05% | -2.56% | -7.83% | -31.76% | -38.21% | -32.41% |
| 2026-01-21 | -13.47 | $126.11 | +2.87% | +1.07% | +0.87% | -22.58% | -34.46% | -32.36% |
| 2025-12-19 | -12.41 | $119.53 | +5.57% | +5.43% | +0.40% | +6.21% | +20.20% | -24.61% |
| 2025-11-20 | -10.79 | $136.72 | -2.27% | -6.70% | +4.61% | +5.93% | -7.70% | -37.58% |
| 2025-11-15 | -14.04 | $138.99 | +0.20% | -5.88% | -7.49% | -1.14% | -6.83% | -43.43% |
| 2025-11-04 | -16.54 | $165.89 | -6.44% | -6.53% | +0.90% | -21.15% | -12.69% | -39.19% |
| 2025-10-16 | -15.33 | $193.98 | -4.80% | -3.26% | -7.16% | +0.05% | -28.35% | -24.87% |
| 2025-10-11 | -18.99 | $188.79 | -5.72% | +10.49% | -3.52% | +2.51% | -12.91% | -26.70% |
| 2025-09-25 | -13.52 | $211.62 | -8.61% | -3.81% | +4.85% | +8.25% | -8.55% | -41.39% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-25: +4.85%
- 2025-11-20: +4.61%
- 2026-04-02: +1.62%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -17.01%
- 2026-06-03: -12.43%
- 2026-01-24: -7.83%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.