Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 10% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 10% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Solana
14 historical signal(s) detected for Solana; 10 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (4 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | 2025-10-02 | $211.6243 | $221.8779 | +4.85% | 104.85 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $188.7926 | $182.1459 | -3.52% | 101.15 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $165.8882 | $167.3829 | +0.90% | 102.07 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $138.9855 | $128.5723 | -7.49% | 94.42 |
| 2025-12-19 | 2025-12-26 | $119.5348 | $120.0178 | +0.40% | 94.80 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $126.1076 | $127.2051 | +0.87% | 95.62 |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-08 | $105.4928 | $87.5435 | -17.01% | 79.35 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-07 | $82.4461 | $80.1439 | -2.79% | 77.14 |
| 2026-05-18 | 2026-05-25 | $85.1828 | $85.2230 | +0.05% | 77.18 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $74.1390 | $64.9238 | -12.43% | 67.58 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.