Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Rain has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.11% and 28.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -11.7% to -8.2% | 1 |
| -8.2% to -4.7% | 1 |
| -4.7% to -1.2% | 2 |
| -1.2% to +2.4% | 1 |
| +2.4% to +5.9% | 0 |
| +5.9% to +9.4% | 0 |
| +9.4% to +12.9% | 0 |
| +12.9% to +16.5% | 0 |
| +16.5% to +20.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -0.74% | -1.16% | 28.6% | 2.07% | -4.91% |
| 3 days | 7 | -2.46% | -1.30% | 28.6% | 8.79% | -6.24% |
| 7 days | 7 | -3.11% | 0.84% | 28.6% | 25.52% | -8.51% |
| 14 days | 6 | -2.54% | -0.21% | 33.3% | 20.00% | -11.74% |
| 30 days | 5 | -7.74% | -9.05% | 20.0% | 0.52% | -19.13% |
| 90 days | 5 | 21.95% | 28.56% | 80.0% | 77.77% | -21.44% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.02 | -3.28% | -2.46% | -8.51% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.01 | -0.72% | +0.75% | +25.52% | +20.00% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.01 | -4.91% | -4.90% | -7.27% | -11.74% | -7.74% | +77.77% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.01 | +1.26% | -2.39% | -3.11% | -3.23% | -19.13% | +49.66% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.01 | -0.74% | -2.68% | -2.72% | -5.75% | -12.51% | +21.95% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $0.01 | -1.79% | +8.79% | +5.74% | +1.31% | -6.41% | -21.44% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $0.01 | +2.07% | -6.24% | -3.80% | -1.86% | +0.52% | +14.84% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +25.52%
- 2026-02-07: +5.74%
- 2026-02-26: -2.72%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-09-04: -8.51%
- 2026-04-14: -7.27%
- 2025-12-03: -3.80%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.