Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Rain has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.73% and 30.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -30.6% to -24.3% | 1 |
| -24.3% to -18.1% | 1 |
| -18.1% to -11.9% | 0 |
| -11.9% to -5.6% | 4 |
| -5.6% to +0.6% | 8 |
| +0.6% to +6.8% | 3 |
| +6.8% to +13.1% | 2 |
| +13.1% to +19.3% | 0 |
| +19.3% to +25.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.97% | -0.89% | 35.0% | 5.97% | -6.68% |
| 3 days | 20 | -2.57% | -2.62% | 30.0% | 8.79% | -14.51% |
| 7 days | 20 | -2.73% | -2.57% | 30.0% | 25.52% | -30.58% |
| 14 days | 19 | -2.91% | -2.08% | 42.1% | 20.00% | -28.36% |
| 30 days | 18 | -8.32% | -5.81% | 33.3% | 17.86% | -24.75% |
| 90 days | 17 | 26.11% | 38.28% | 82.4% | 104.09% | -24.59% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.02 | -3.28% | -2.46% | -8.51% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.01 | -0.72% | +0.75% | +25.52% | +20.00% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $0.01 | -1.58% | -4.62% | +2.57% | -7.29% | -15.32% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $0.01 | -1.89% | -1.60% | +9.25% | +18.63% | +9.35% | +19.86% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $0.01 | -1.21% | -2.45% | -2.74% | +6.74% | +10.61% | +26.11% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.01 | -4.91% | -4.90% | -7.27% | -11.74% | -7.74% | +77.77% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $0.01 | +4.30% | +8.05% | +1.95% | +2.17% | -1.81% | +98.89% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $0.01 | +1.98% | -4.05% | -11.52% | -24.86% | -11.64% | +64.65% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $0.01 | +0.53% | +1.35% | -1.17% | -2.91% | -11.81% | +49.77% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.01 | +1.26% | -2.39% | -3.11% | -3.23% | -19.13% | +49.66% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $0.01 | +0.00% | +1.78% | -2.27% | -3.41% | -14.33% | +55.67% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.01 | -0.74% | -2.68% | -2.72% | -5.75% | -12.51% | +21.95% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $0.01 | -2.06% | -3.34% | -4.19% | -6.62% | -8.90% | -24.59% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $0.01 | -1.79% | +8.79% | +5.74% | +1.31% | -6.41% | -21.44% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $0.01 | +5.97% | +5.08% | -6.15% | +10.92% | +9.68% | -9.79% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $0.01 | -0.34% | -7.02% | -0.00% | +4.62% | +17.86% | +14.96% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $0.01 | +2.07% | -6.24% | -3.80% | -1.86% | +0.52% | +14.84% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $0.01 | -5.09% | -9.22% | +7.61% | +4.87% | +1.65% | +23.10% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $0.00 | -6.68% | -14.51% | -20.08% | -28.36% | -24.75% | +104.09% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $0.00 | -3.60% | -12.66% | -30.58% | -12.78% | -19.93% | +85.20% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +25.52%
- 2026-06-12: +9.25%
- 2025-11-27: +7.61%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-02: -30.58%
- 2025-10-13: -20.08%
- 2026-03-24: -11.52%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.