Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Rain has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.21% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -20.6% to +2.2% | 3 |
| +2.2% to +25.0% | 1 |
| +25.0% to +47.8% | 0 |
| +47.8% to +70.5% | 0 |
| +70.5% to +93.3% | 0 |
| +93.3% to +116.1% | 0 |
| +116.1% to +138.9% | 0 |
| +138.9% to +161.6% | 1 |
| +161.6% to +184.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | 4.21% | 3.94% | 66.7% | 9.41% | -1.43% |
| 3 days | 6 | 3.59% | 3.44% | 66.7% | 20.72% | -8.79% |
| 7 days | 6 | 0.21% | 18.05% | 50.0% | 111.11% | -8.34% |
| 14 days | 6 | 3.18% | 24.06% | 66.7% | 129.68% | -2.60% |
| 30 days | 6 | 2.31% | 22.09% | 66.7% | 125.35% | -7.05% |
| 90 days | 6 | 1.63% | 51.25% | 50.0% | 184.40% | -20.57% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $0.01 | +2.81% | -5.66% | -8.34% | +2.27% | +12.46% | +20.99% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $0.01 | +8.16% | +4.71% | +12.80% | +11.49% | +2.74% | -17.91% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.01 | -1.43% | -8.79% | -5.71% | -0.58% | -7.05% | -20.57% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.01 | -0.90% | +2.46% | -7.73% | +4.08% | -2.83% | -17.73% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.00 | +5.60% | +7.17% | +111.11% | +129.68% | +125.35% | +184.40% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.00 | +9.41% | +20.72% | +6.14% | -2.60% | +1.87% | +158.28% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +111.11%
- 2026-02-06: +12.80%
- 2025-10-11: +6.14%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -8.34%
- 2026-01-30: -7.73%
- 2026-02-01: -5.71%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.