Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Rain has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.93% and 47.4% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -27.2% to -7.3% | 3 |
| -7.3% to +12.6% | 9 |
| +12.6% to +32.5% | 3 |
| +32.5% to +52.4% | 0 |
| +52.4% to +72.3% | 0 |
| +72.3% to +92.2% | 0 |
| +92.2% to +112.1% | 0 |
| +112.1% to +132.0% | 1 |
| +132.0% to +151.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.46% | 0.93% | 47.4% | 9.41% | -6.39% |
| 3 days | 19 | 1.89% | 2.73% | 57.9% | 20.72% | -8.79% |
| 7 days | 19 | -0.93% | 7.35% | 47.4% | 111.11% | -7.73% |
| 14 days | 19 | -0.58% | 12.10% | 47.4% | 129.68% | -12.90% |
| 30 days | 18 | 0.38% | 21.94% | 50.0% | 151.90% | -27.21% |
| 90 days | 18 | 43.28% | 64.99% | 72.2% | 204.22% | -20.57% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $0.01 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $0.02 | -0.50% | -5.66% | -6.35% | -12.90% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $0.01 | -0.98% | +1.89% | +0.02% | +10.83% | +16.04% | +31.62% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $0.01 | +2.19% | +4.53% | -1.77% | +1.78% | +14.94% | +23.42% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $0.01 | +2.07% | -1.62% | -5.18% | -5.46% | -5.46% | +82.25% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $0.01 | -0.70% | -1.14% | -5.41% | -6.01% | -15.64% | +89.85% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $0.01 | -0.77% | -6.53% | +0.81% | -11.92% | -14.71% | +58.17% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $0.01 | -1.21% | -1.60% | -2.53% | -4.00% | -27.21% | +54.94% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $0.01 | -0.46% | +1.34% | -2.53% | -5.19% | -5.09% | -19.19% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $0.01 | +3.41% | +5.26% | +12.19% | +10.17% | +3.72% | -17.15% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.01 | -1.43% | -8.79% | -5.71% | -0.58% | -7.05% | -20.57% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.01 | -0.90% | +2.46% | -7.73% | +4.08% | -2.83% | -17.73% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $0.01 | +6.31% | +17.60% | +18.18% | +6.45% | +15.51% | -10.87% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $0.01 | +0.33% | +2.35% | -0.93% | +2.83% | +6.80% | +24.66% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $0.01 | -1.39% | -3.43% | -5.37% | -3.27% | -1.11% | +12.55% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.00 | +5.60% | +7.17% | +111.11% | +129.68% | +125.35% | +184.40% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $0.00 | +1.60% | +5.11% | +10.74% | +118.21% | +142.51% | +204.22% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $0.00 | -6.39% | -0.71% | +4.58% | +5.47% | +151.90% | +200.53% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.00 | +9.41% | +20.72% | +6.14% | -2.60% | +1.87% | +158.28% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $0.00 | +1.57% | +12.93% | +19.39% | -7.70% | -4.60% | +130.42% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +111.11%
- 2025-09-26: +19.39%
- 2026-01-21: +18.18%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -7.73%
- 2026-08-29: -6.35%
- 2026-02-01: -5.71%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.