Transparent historical data
What Happens to Rain When Bitcoin Drops 10% in a Day?
Rain has recorded 1 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 12.80% and 100.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
Not enough completed data yet for a distribution chart.
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 1 | 8.16% | 8.16% | 100.0% | 8.16% | 8.16% |
| 3 days | 1 | 4.71% | 4.71% | 100.0% | 4.71% | 4.71% |
| 7 days | 1 | 12.80% | 12.80% | 100.0% | 12.80% | 12.80% |
| 14 days | 1 | 11.49% | 11.49% | 100.0% | 11.49% | 11.49% |
| 30 days | 1 | 2.74% | 2.74% | 100.0% | 2.74% | 2.74% |
| 90 days | 1 | -17.91% | -17.91% | 0.0% | -17.91% | -17.91% |
Historical occurrences
1 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $0.01 | +8.16% | +4.71% | +12.80% | +11.49% | +2.74% | -17.91% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +12.80%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +12.80%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -10%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.