Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Monero has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.35% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.6% to -5.5% | 1 |
| -5.5% to -3.3% | 1 |
| -3.3% to -1.2% | 2 |
| -1.2% to +1.0% | 5 |
| +1.0% to +3.1% | 1 |
| +3.1% to +5.2% | 1 |
| +5.2% to +7.4% | 0 |
| +7.4% to +9.5% | 0 |
| +9.5% to +11.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -0.10% | -0.00% | 50.0% | 11.67% | -7.61% |
| 3 days | 12 | 1.16% | 0.03% | 58.3% | 8.83% | -11.94% |
| 7 days | 12 | -4.35% | -4.12% | 33.3% | 15.37% | -35.36% |
| 14 days | 12 | 2.33% | 1.48% | 58.3% | 62.81% | -28.75% |
| 30 days | 12 | 4.10% | 0.95% | 58.3% | 62.64% | -37.62% |
| 90 days | 11 | -16.10% | -9.27% | 9.1% | 59.84% | -25.32% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $335.11 | -4.62% | -3.88% | -1.26% | +6.62% | +10.27% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $325.71 | +11.67% | -5.46% | -4.36% | +6.05% | -2.57% | +59.84% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $336.96 | +3.36% | +5.78% | -4.33% | -3.14% | +3.76% | -0.03% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $452.22 | +0.36% | -11.94% | -35.36% | -26.46% | -26.20% | -16.82% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $444.07 | +1.89% | +3.42% | -10.33% | -28.75% | -28.26% | -16.10% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $516.33 | -1.83% | -4.82% | -11.05% | -27.07% | -37.62% | -25.32% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $433.38 | -2.78% | +0.24% | +0.64% | +62.81% | +4.72% | -22.88% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $443.93 | +0.18% | +2.09% | -5.09% | +1.87% | +10.70% | -23.94% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $409.18 | +0.12% | +2.07% | +15.37% | +10.76% | +62.64% | -14.10% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $392.54 | -7.61% | -1.10% | +5.55% | +21.23% | +11.17% | -11.27% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $387.79 | -0.47% | +8.83% | -5.56% | +2.78% | +4.44% | -10.71% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $368.55 | -0.32% | +5.10% | +6.32% | -8.90% | -1.59% | -20.68% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-15: +15.37%
- 2025-11-08: +6.32%
- 2025-12-07: +5.55%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.36%
- 2026-01-22: -11.05%
- 2026-01-26: -10.33%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.