Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Monero
12 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $368.5501 | $391.8337 | +6.32% | 106.32 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $392.5420 | $414.3226 | +5.55% | 112.22 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $409.1832 | $472.0598 | +15.37% | 129.46 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $443.9341 | $421.3338 | -5.09% | 122.87 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $516.3280 | $459.2693 | -11.05% | 109.29 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $452.2150 | $292.3172 | -35.36% | 70.65 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $336.9557 | $322.3769 | -4.33% | 67.59 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $325.7130 | $311.4992 | -4.36% | 64.64 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $335.1119 | $330.8904 | -1.26% | 63.83 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.