Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Monero has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 4.05% and 78.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -35.4% to -27.1% | 1 |
| -27.1% to -18.9% | 0 |
| -18.9% to -10.7% | 0 |
| -10.7% to -2.5% | 2 |
| -2.5% to +5.7% | 5 |
| +5.7% to +13.9% | 5 |
| +13.9% to +22.2% | 0 |
| +22.2% to +30.4% | 0 |
| +30.4% to +38.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | 1.03% | 0.57% | 57.1% | 4.08% | -3.40% |
| 3 days | 14 | 2.32% | 3.86% | 78.6% | 41.70% | -11.94% |
| 7 days | 14 | 4.05% | 3.66% | 78.6% | 38.59% | -35.36% |
| 14 days | 14 | 9.49% | 1.96% | 71.4% | 17.66% | -26.46% |
| 30 days | 14 | 14.80% | 8.05% | 64.3% | 39.83% | -32.91% |
| 90 days | 11 | 6.80% | 20.00% | 54.5% | 133.77% | -29.11% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $361.98 | -3.01% | +2.08% | +9.66% | +14.74% | +36.48% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $360.08 | -0.56% | +1.12% | +2.62% | +9.17% | +30.67% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $321.43 | +2.94% | +4.07% | +4.93% | +7.49% | +22.19% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $386.33 | +1.70% | -1.68% | -4.16% | -23.41% | -17.81% | +6.80% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $382.56 | +4.08% | +2.56% | +0.82% | -10.10% | -11.94% | +7.14% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $452.22 | +0.36% | -11.94% | -35.36% | -26.46% | -26.20% | -16.82% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $498.44 | +3.59% | +0.74% | -8.70% | -25.28% | -32.91% | -29.11% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $443.16 | -0.63% | +41.70% | +38.59% | +13.30% | -28.60% | -21.79% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $405.03 | +2.29% | +1.14% | +8.93% | +9.80% | +36.86% | -15.86% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $399.37 | -1.71% | -6.34% | +1.42% | +10.47% | +4.91% | -10.34% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $345.19 | -1.88% | +4.08% | +12.22% | +17.66% | +18.33% | +15.36% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $304.88 | +2.43% | +7.34% | +9.96% | +11.10% | +11.27% | +102.45% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $301.83 | -3.40% | +4.56% | +7.19% | +7.29% | +39.83% | +133.77% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $298.75 | +1.75% | +4.64% | +3.17% | +11.69% | +29.66% | +48.34% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-10: +38.59%
- 2025-11-04: +12.22%
- 2025-10-22: +9.96%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.36%
- 2026-01-21: -8.70%
- 2026-05-24: -4.16%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.