Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10?
Monero has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.61% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -0.7% to +1.2% | 1 |
| +1.2% to +3.0% | 0 |
| +3.0% to +4.9% | 2 |
| +4.9% to +6.8% | 1 |
| +6.8% to +8.6% | 0 |
| +8.6% to +10.5% | 0 |
| +10.5% to +12.4% | 1 |
| +12.4% to +14.3% | 0 |
| +14.3% to +16.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8.00 | $302.88 | +3.86% | +10.54% | +12.57% | +5.76% | +10.64% | +83.46% |
| 2026-03-22 | 10.00 | $334.58 | +6.53% | +0.53% | -1.16% | -2.97% | +5.61% | -5.92% |
| 2026-03-09 | 8.00 | $329.99 | +2.13% | +6.95% | +6.38% | +8.01% | +4.20% | -10.33% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10.00 | $336.63 | +0.47% | +2.77% | -1.97% | +4.28% | -0.72% | +9.99% |
| 2026-02-06 | 9.00 | $292.32 | +8.50% | +8.24% | +13.77% | +14.39% | +16.13% | +41.90% |
| 2025-11-15 | 10.00 | $391.83 | +7.71% | +3.65% | -14.31% | +4.93% | +4.43% | -15.12% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +13.77%
- 2026-06-08: +12.57%
- 2026-03-09: +6.38%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -14.31%
- 2026-03-02: -1.97%
- 2026-03-22: -1.16%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.