Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Monero has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.99% and 65.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -31.6% to -26.2% | 1 |
| -26.2% to -20.8% | 0 |
| -20.8% to -15.4% | 1 |
| -15.4% to -10.0% | 0 |
| -10.0% to -4.6% | 1 |
| -4.6% to +0.8% | 4 |
| +0.8% to +6.2% | 6 |
| +6.2% to +11.6% | 3 |
| +11.6% to +17.0% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | 1.40% | 0.99% | 60.0% | 7.86% | -8.68% |
| 3 days | 20 | 0.69% | 0.57% | 60.0% | 10.54% | -11.94% |
| 7 days | 20 | 1.99% | 0.06% | 65.0% | 12.57% | -25.10% |
| 14 days | 19 | 3.16% | 1.29% | 68.4% | 17.03% | -31.62% |
| 30 days | 18 | 5.64% | 3.53% | 66.7% | 27.28% | -50.03% |
| 90 days | 17 | -5.85% | 7.08% | 47.1% | 83.46% | -47.92% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $520.42 | +0.03% | +3.64% | -2.34% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $422.15 | -2.83% | +2.52% | +3.66% | +17.03% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $330.89 | -0.33% | -0.15% | +7.98% | +3.27% | +18.80% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $387.19 | -8.68% | -11.94% | -17.60% | -20.56% | -16.66% | +32.42% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $302.88 | +3.86% | +10.54% | +12.57% | +5.76% | +10.64% | +83.46% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $346.57 | -0.51% | -0.96% | +1.96% | +9.64% | +14.46% | -6.57% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $343.85 | -4.81% | +0.09% | +0.28% | +12.14% | +16.22% | -5.98% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $347.67 | -3.25% | -7.28% | -7.65% | -6.13% | +5.51% | -7.87% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $337.02 | +1.38% | +1.12% | +8.81% | +3.16% | -2.89% | -10.13% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $345.96 | +3.51% | -1.88% | +2.02% | -0.94% | -8.53% | -5.85% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $338.23 | -0.12% | +5.87% | -0.36% | +8.42% | -0.39% | +8.61% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $334.24 | -0.15% | -0.16% | +3.50% | +5.59% | -2.31% | +13.64% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $347.01 | +1.42% | -6.95% | -7.18% | -3.52% | +1.16% | +14.06% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $317.16 | +2.17% | +5.41% | +9.41% | +1.55% | +4.05% | +26.01% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $665.50 | +6.02% | -7.71% | -25.10% | -31.62% | -50.03% | -47.92% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $441.18 | +7.86% | +5.06% | +0.81% | -3.60% | +27.28% | -23.62% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $398.33 | +2.54% | +0.26% | -2.54% | +7.65% | +5.77% | -15.09% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $398.56 | +2.70% | +3.54% | +2.48% | +0.68% | +11.59% | -20.07% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $303.96 | +2.35% | +4.75% | +3.82% | +14.22% | +21.84% | +44.87% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $312.66 | +6.61% | +5.68% | +6.76% | +1.83% | +7.10% | +40.41% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-08: +12.57%
- 2026-02-07: +9.41%
- 2026-03-10: +8.81%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -25.10%
- 2026-06-12: -17.60%
- 2026-03-24: -7.65%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.