Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Monero
20 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $312.6627 | $333.7949 | +6.76% | 106.76 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $303.9601 | $315.5856 | +3.82% | 110.84 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $398.5601 | $408.4500 | +2.48% | 113.59 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $441.1812 | $444.7364 | +0.81% | 114.51 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $665.5032 | $498.4438 | -25.10% | 85.76 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $317.1561 | $347.0137 | +9.41% | 93.84 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $347.0137 | $322.0837 | -7.18% | 87.10 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $334.2433 | $345.9567 | +3.50% | 90.15 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $345.9567 | $352.9340 | +2.02% | 91.97 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $347.6719 | $321.0643 | -7.65% | 84.93 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $343.8464 | $344.8084 | +0.28% | 85.17 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $302.8756 | $340.9439 | +12.57% | 95.87 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $330.8904 | $357.2848 | +7.98% | 103.52 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $422.1466 | $437.6055 | +3.66% | 107.31 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $520.4191 | $508.2345 | -2.34% | 104.80 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.