Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Monero has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.17% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.1% to -15.3% | 1 |
| -15.3% to -11.5% | 2 |
| -11.5% to -7.8% | 0 |
| -7.8% to -4.0% | 1 |
| -4.0% to -0.2% | 3 |
| -0.2% to +3.6% | 5 |
| +3.6% to +7.3% | 3 |
| +7.3% to +11.1% | 3 |
| +11.1% to +14.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -1.02% | -0.87% | 36.8% | 7.71% | -13.48% |
| 3 days | 19 | 1.43% | 0.21% | 63.2% | 14.89% | -19.08% |
| 7 days | 19 | 1.17% | -1.29% | 52.6% | 20.66% | -35.36% |
| 14 days | 19 | 4.93% | 1.94% | 68.4% | 18.71% | -26.46% |
| 30 days | 18 | 5.61% | 4.57% | 66.7% | 41.87% | -32.91% |
| 90 days | 18 | -0.80% | 8.64% | 50.0% | 69.01% | -29.11% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $506.70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $471.94 | -0.30% | +10.31% | +10.31% | +10.57% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $307.92 | -3.90% | +2.16% | +14.83% | +2.22% | +6.30% | +69.01% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $343.92 | -5.29% | +8.57% | -8.53% | +1.13% | -10.09% | +41.57% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $335.38 | +3.34% | +2.82% | +3.49% | +16.71% | +22.64% | -3.78% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $322.38 | +1.28% | +1.43% | +1.24% | +7.52% | +15.57% | -2.39% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $342.70 | -1.68% | -2.37% | -1.47% | -1.69% | +1.68% | +0.79% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $348.29 | -2.54% | -3.24% | +1.17% | -0.00% | -4.71% | +7.21% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $309.62 | -1.10% | +7.95% | +8.73% | +6.58% | +8.64% | +24.78% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $372.42 | +1.12% | -14.84% | -7.02% | -13.01% | -3.85% | +9.11% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $460.24 | -13.48% | -19.08% | -29.59% | -23.53% | -26.51% | -17.55% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $452.22 | +0.36% | -11.94% | -35.36% | -26.46% | -26.20% | -16.82% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $498.44 | +3.59% | +0.74% | -8.70% | -25.28% | -32.91% | -29.11% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $399.37 | -1.71% | -6.34% | +1.42% | +10.47% | +4.91% | -10.34% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $406.78 | -2.08% | -1.00% | -8.05% | +0.71% | +6.54% | -17.24% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $339.24 | -1.02% | +14.89% | +20.66% | +18.71% | +40.27% | -3.89% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $391.83 | +7.71% | +3.65% | -14.31% | +4.93% | +4.43% | -15.12% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $345.19 | -1.88% | +4.08% | +12.22% | +17.66% | +18.33% | +15.36% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $294.20 | +1.55% | +5.75% | -0.89% | +11.24% | +41.87% | +53.73% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $289.12 | -0.48% | +0.50% | +15.29% | +18.28% | +15.41% | +50.27% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-21: +20.66%
- 2025-09-26: +15.29%
- 2026-06-06: +14.83%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.36%
- 2026-02-01: -29.59%
- 2025-11-15: -14.31%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.