Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Monero
20 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $289.1195 | $333.3352 | +15.29% | 115.29 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $294.1979 | $291.5727 | -0.89% | 114.26 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $345.1926 | $387.3602 | +12.22% | 128.22 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $391.8337 | $335.7670 | -14.31% | 109.88 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $406.7820 | $374.0360 | -8.05% | 101.03 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $498.4438 | $455.0858 | -8.70% | 92.24 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $452.2150 | $292.3172 | -35.36% | 59.63 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $309.6183 | $336.6338 | +8.73% | 64.83 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $348.2932 | $352.3557 | +1.17% | 65.59 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $342.6979 | $337.6489 | -1.47% | 64.62 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $322.3769 | $326.3860 | +1.24% | 65.42 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $335.3775 | $347.0844 | +3.49% | 67.71 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $343.9163 | $314.5660 | -8.53% | 61.93 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $471.9411 | $520.5977 | +10.31% | 68.31 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.