Transparent historical data
What Happens to Monero After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Monero has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.59% and 36.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -47.4% to -37.5% | 1 |
| -37.5% to -27.6% | 2 |
| -27.6% to -17.7% | 0 |
| -17.7% to -7.7% | 5 |
| -7.7% to +2.2% | 1 |
| +2.2% to +12.1% | 5 |
| +12.1% to +22.0% | 3 |
| +22.0% to +31.9% | 0 |
| +31.9% to +41.9% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -1.34% | -0.94% | 31.6% | 12.08% | -8.22% |
| 3 days | 19 | 0.74% | 0.61% | 57.9% | 10.64% | -16.09% |
| 7 days | 19 | -3.59% | -2.97% | 36.8% | 14.83% | -24.26% |
| 14 days | 19 | 1.13% | -1.48% | 57.9% | 30.16% | -32.43% |
| 30 days | 19 | 3.60% | -0.02% | 52.6% | 41.87% | -47.41% |
| 90 days | 18 | 21.23% | 19.16% | 55.6% | 133.77% | -48.47% |
Historical occurrences
19 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | -5.29 | $319.06 | -1.34% | +0.39% | -3.59% | -0.53% | +5.23% | — |
| 2026-06-13 | -8.68 | $353.58 | -4.36% | -1.63% | -10.97% | -9.30% | -8.43% | +43.74% |
| 2026-06-06 | -17.53 | $307.92 | -3.90% | +2.16% | +14.83% | +2.22% | +6.30% | +69.01% |
| 2026-06-02 | -6.38 | $343.92 | -5.29% | +8.57% | -8.53% | +1.13% | -10.09% | +41.57% |
| 2026-05-31 | -6.69 | $370.26 | -0.79% | -12.03% | -20.08% | -8.67% | -14.87% | +27.46% |
| 2026-05-29 | -9.86 | $354.02 | +12.08% | +3.76% | +5.47% | +9.37% | -11.58% | +23.61% |
| 2026-02-16 | -7.12 | $326.87 | -1.21% | -0.26% | -5.28% | +2.99% | +9.84% | +18.84% |
| 2026-02-06 | -22.38 | $292.32 | +8.50% | +8.24% | +13.77% | +14.39% | +16.13% | +41.90% |
| 2026-02-02 | -13.48 | $398.20 | -5.58% | -5.43% | -20.54% | -17.91% | -15.17% | -3.82% |
| 2026-01-26 | -9.64 | $444.07 | +1.89% | +3.42% | -10.33% | -28.75% | -28.26% | -16.10% |
| 2026-01-21 | -19.24 | $498.44 | +3.59% | +0.74% | -8.70% | -25.28% | -32.91% | -29.11% |
| 2026-01-16 | -5.16 | $669.21 | -8.22% | -16.09% | -24.26% | -32.43% | -47.41% | -48.47% |
| 2025-12-08 | -7.61 | $362.68 | +3.13% | +10.64% | +12.82% | +30.16% | +21.86% | -6.40% |
| 2025-12-02 | -6.90 | $406.78 | -2.08% | -1.00% | -8.05% | +0.71% | +6.54% | -17.24% |
| 2025-11-20 | -9.21 | $366.24 | -7.37% | +0.90% | +8.83% | +11.53% | +20.46% | -11.54% |
| 2025-11-11 | -7.19 | $387.36 | -4.39% | -0.36% | +4.85% | -0.02% | +3.60% | -18.32% |
| 2025-10-17 | -5.20 | $301.83 | -3.40% | +4.56% | +7.19% | +7.29% | +39.83% | +133.77% |
| 2025-10-11 | -13.97 | $294.20 | +1.55% | +5.75% | -0.89% | +11.24% | +41.87% | +53.73% |
| 2025-09-18 | -5.67 | $301.55 | -0.75% | -0.82% | -2.98% | +3.69% | -3.31% | +42.19% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-06: +14.83%
- 2026-02-06: +13.77%
- 2025-12-08: +12.82%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-16: -24.26%
- 2026-02-02: -20.54%
- 2026-05-31: -20.08%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.