Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Monero
19 historical signal(s) detected for Monero; 12 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (7 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-25 | $301.5496 | $292.5665 | -2.98% | 97.02 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $294.1979 | $291.5727 | -0.89% | 96.16 |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-11-18 | $387.3602 | $406.1520 | +4.85% | 100.82 |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-27 | $366.2365 | $398.5601 | +8.83% | 109.72 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $406.7820 | $374.0360 | -8.05% | 100.89 |
| 2026-01-16 | 2026-01-23 | $669.2083 | $506.8663 | -24.26% | 76.41 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $444.0712 | $398.2015 | -10.33% | 68.52 |
| 2026-02-02 | 2026-02-09 | $398.2015 | $316.4077 | -20.54% | 54.44 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-23 | $326.8708 | $309.6183 | -5.28% | 51.57 |
| 2026-05-29 | 2026-06-05 | $354.0231 | $373.3981 | +5.47% | 54.39 |
| 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-13 | $307.9241 | $353.5753 | +14.83% | 62.46 |
| 2026-06-13 | 2026-06-20 | $353.5753 | $314.7739 | -10.97% | 55.60 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.