Transparent historical data
What Happens to LEO Token When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
LEO Token has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.94% and 65.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -4.7% to -3.3% | 1 |
| -3.3% to -1.8% | 1 |
| -1.8% to -0.3% | 2 |
| -0.3% to +1.1% | 10 |
| +1.1% to +2.6% | 3 |
| +2.6% to +4.0% | 2 |
| +4.0% to +5.5% | 0 |
| +5.5% to +7.0% | 0 |
| +7.0% to +8.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $9.35 | -1.79% | +0.00% | -1.83% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $9.30 | -0.26% | +0.92% | -0.74% | -0.63% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $9.71 | +1.09% | +0.95% | +0.03% | +0.46% | -2.25% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $9.51 | +0.93% | +2.96% | +1.00% | -1.84% | +0.55% | -3.48% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $9.58 | -1.73% | +0.38% | +2.21% | +0.14% | -2.35% | -3.20% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $10.00 | -1.31% | -0.25% | +2.20% | +3.57% | +0.52% | -4.54% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $10.55 | -4.79% | -4.71% | -6.42% | -1.82% | -2.41% | -10.78% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $9.41 | -0.39% | +1.17% | +3.75% | +9.99% | +7.94% | +2.02% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $9.16 | +0.12% | -1.29% | -0.69% | +2.75% | +9.69% | +4.68% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $9.03 | -0.07% | -0.53% | +0.89% | +0.84% | +11.74% | +11.49% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $9.03 | +1.37% | -0.11% | +1.36% | +0.66% | +16.21% | +10.96% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $8.72 | -0.62% | +1.79% | +3.53% | +4.44% | +8.60% | +14.68% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $8.40 | +1.85% | +0.39% | +3.25% | +4.06% | +7.75% | +20.83% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $7.91 | -1.52% | +8.42% | +6.24% | +9.69% | +13.46% | +30.21% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $9.08 | -4.12% | -2.00% | -3.67% | +0.04% | -8.32% | +10.22% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $7.98 | +7.11% | +3.73% | +6.52% | +19.03% | +14.92% | +16.33% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $9.48 | +0.50% | -0.13% | +1.53% | -3.43% | +1.10% | -4.77% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $9.69 | +1.01% | +1.33% | -1.68% | -1.69% | -12.36% | -11.69% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $9.66 | +0.11% | +0.13% | -2.17% | -7.24% | -4.32% | -5.89% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $9.58 | +0.66% | +0.29% | +0.88% | +0.93% | -0.58% | -4.55% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-20: +6.52%
- 2026-02-07: +6.24%
- 2026-03-24: +3.75%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-04-08: -6.42%
- 2026-01-14: -3.67%
- 2025-10-13: -2.17%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.