Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for LEO Token
20 historical signal(s) detected for LEO Token; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $9.5817 | $9.6656 | +0.88% | 100.88 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $9.6589 | $9.4497 | -2.17% | 98.69 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $9.6938 | $9.5313 | -1.68% | 97.04 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $7.9756 | $8.4957 | +6.52% | 103.37 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $9.0752 | $8.7418 | -3.67% | 99.57 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $7.9056 | $8.3992 | +6.24% | 105.79 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $8.3992 | $8.6720 | +3.25% | 109.22 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $8.7219 | $9.0294 | +3.53% | 113.07 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $9.0294 | $9.1095 | +0.89% | 114.07 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $9.4066 | $9.7597 | +3.75% | 118.36 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $10.5483 | $9.8711 | -6.42% | 110.76 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $9.5834 | $9.7955 | +2.21% | 113.21 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $9.7130 | $9.7162 | +0.03% | 113.25 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $9.3024 | $9.2331 | -0.74% | 112.40 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $9.3534 | $9.1824 | -1.83% | 110.35 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for LEO Token · Read the full methodology