Transparent historical data
What Happens to LEO Token After a 5% One-Day Drop?
LEO Token has recorded 5 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 12.43% and 100.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| +7.9% to +10.5% | 1 |
| +10.5% to +13.2% | 2 |
| +13.2% to +15.8% | 0 |
| +15.8% to +18.5% | 0 |
| +18.5% to +21.1% | 0 |
| +21.1% to +23.8% | 1 |
| +23.8% to +26.4% | 0 |
| +26.4% to +29.1% | 0 |
| +29.1% to +31.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 5 | 3.51% | 4.27% | 80.0% | 15.96% | -6.04% |
| 3 days | 5 | 8.27% | 10.94% | 100.0% | 22.08% | 0.23% |
| 7 days | 5 | 12.43% | 12.28% | 100.0% | 22.04% | 4.62% |
| 14 days | 5 | 14.35% | 18.78% | 100.0% | 32.98% | 9.08% |
| 30 days | 5 | 12.03% | 17.16% | 100.0% | 31.73% | 7.88% |
| 90 days | 5 | 19.88% | 22.25% | 100.0% | 50.01% | 2.06% |
Historical occurrences
5 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | -23.00 | $6.82 | +15.96% | +22.08% | +22.04% | +26.58% | +31.73% | +50.01% |
| 2025-12-24 | -5.15 | $7.85 | +3.51% | +8.27% | +16.55% | +14.35% | +12.03% | +19.88% |
| 2025-12-22 | -5.15 | $8.10 | +2.10% | +0.23% | +4.62% | +10.90% | +7.88% | +13.81% |
| 2025-12-18 | -21.13 | $7.22 | -6.04% | +18.25% | +12.43% | +32.98% | +23.11% | +25.47% |
| 2025-11-07 | -9.01 | $8.67 | +5.84% | +5.85% | +5.76% | +9.08% | +11.06% | +2.06% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +22.04%
- 2025-12-24: +16.55%
- 2025-12-18: +12.43%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-22: +4.62%
- 2025-11-07: +5.76%
- 2025-12-18: +12.43%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.