Transparent historical data
What Happens to LEO Token After a 3% One-Day Drop?
LEO Token has recorded 16 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 2.04% and 87.5% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -1.5% to +1.2% | 7 |
| +1.2% to +3.8% | 4 |
| +3.8% to +6.4% | 2 |
| +6.4% to +9.0% | 1 |
| +9.0% to +11.6% | 0 |
| +11.6% to +14.2% | 0 |
| +14.2% to +16.8% | 0 |
| +16.8% to +19.5% | 1 |
| +19.5% to +22.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 16 | 0.20% | 1.23% | 50.0% | 15.96% | -6.04% |
| 3 days | 16 | 1.57% | 4.03% | 68.8% | 22.08% | -1.46% |
| 7 days | 16 | 2.04% | 4.23% | 87.5% | 22.04% | -11.30% |
| 14 days | 16 | 4.71% | 7.09% | 75.0% | 32.98% | -3.43% |
| 30 days | 16 | 3.63% | 5.32% | 75.0% | 31.73% | -24.02% |
| 90 days | 14 | 14.56% | 13.09% | 78.6% | 50.01% | -6.81% |
Historical occurrences
16 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | -3.36 | $9.18 | -2.48% | +2.45% | +1.59% | +2.70% | -1.48% | — |
| 2026-08-13 | -3.58 | $9.08 | +4.61% | -1.41% | +2.49% | +1.72% | +0.83% | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -3.87 | $9.56 | -1.06% | -1.46% | +0.48% | -0.37% | -3.02% | -2.13% |
| 2026-04-09 | -4.79 | $10.04 | -0.10% | -0.05% | -2.83% | +1.10% | +1.99% | -6.81% |
| 2026-02-22 | -3.66 | $8.35 | -2.06% | +2.47% | +6.27% | +7.50% | +12.59% | +19.21% |
| 2026-02-12 | -3.61 | $8.40 | -0.93% | +1.87% | +1.35% | +3.86% | +7.49% | +19.17% |
| 2026-02-06 | -23.00 | $6.82 | +15.96% | +22.08% | +22.04% | +26.58% | +31.73% | +50.01% |
| 2026-02-01 | -4.01 | $8.78 | -4.35% | +0.88% | -11.30% | -2.54% | +2.90% | +16.54% |
| 2026-01-15 | -4.12 | $8.70 | +2.02% | +4.01% | +1.56% | +5.56% | -3.48% | +13.44% |
| 2026-01-07 | -3.45 | $8.97 | +2.35% | +1.27% | +1.15% | -2.57% | -24.02% | +15.32% |
| 2025-12-24 | -5.15 | $7.85 | +3.51% | +8.27% | +16.55% | +14.35% | +12.03% | +19.88% |
| 2025-12-22 | -5.15 | $8.10 | +2.10% | +0.23% | +4.62% | +10.90% | +7.88% | +13.81% |
| 2025-12-18 | -21.13 | $7.22 | -6.04% | +18.25% | +12.43% | +32.98% | +23.11% | +25.47% |
| 2025-12-03 | -3.92 | $9.48 | +0.50% | -0.13% | +1.53% | -3.43% | +1.10% | -4.77% |
| 2025-11-07 | -9.01 | $8.67 | +5.84% | +5.85% | +5.76% | +9.08% | +11.06% | +2.06% |
| 2025-10-21 | -4.97 | $8.98 | -0.12% | -0.13% | +3.96% | +6.02% | +4.36% | +2.06% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +22.04%
- 2025-12-24: +16.55%
- 2025-12-18: +12.43%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -11.30%
- 2026-04-09: -2.83%
- 2026-06-06: +0.48%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.