Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Hyperliquid
20 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $47.1740 | $46.4826 | -1.47% | 98.53 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $39.7497 | $37.4117 | -5.88% | 92.74 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $36.2005 | $34.6960 | -4.16% | 88.88 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $24.8744 | $25.7837 | +3.66% | 92.13 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $25.8407 | $21.0921 | -18.38% | 75.20 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $32.3965 | $31.6125 | -2.42% | 73.38 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $31.6125 | $30.4065 | -3.82% | 70.58 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $27.9119 | $32.2221 | +15.44% | 81.48 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $32.2221 | $36.2503 | +12.50% | 91.67 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $37.3734 | $36.8313 | -1.45% | 90.34 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $38.7571 | $43.5951 | +12.48% | 101.62 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $59.6133 | $63.8873 | +7.17% | 108.90 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $65.4834 | $60.8324 | -7.10% | 101.17 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $69.6037 | $82.2983 | +18.24% | 119.62 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $87.4499 | $78.5568 | -10.17% | 107.45 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Hyperliquid · Read the full methodology