Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Hyperliquid has recorded 47 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.55% and 51.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -20.2% to -12.1% | 6 |
| -12.1% to -3.9% | 8 |
| -3.9% to +4.2% | 10 |
| +4.2% to +12.3% | 10 |
| +12.3% to +20.5% | 1 |
| +20.5% to +28.6% | 5 |
| +28.6% to +36.8% | 2 |
| +36.8% to +44.9% | 2 |
| +44.9% to +53.1% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 47 | -0.16% | 0.83% | 46.8% | 23.15% | -9.19% |
| 3 days | 47 | 0.72% | 2.12% | 51.1% | 23.96% | -12.17% |
| 7 days | 47 | 0.55% | 4.05% | 51.1% | 42.54% | -13.83% |
| 14 days | 46 | 2.84% | 6.39% | 54.3% | 53.05% | -20.23% |
| 30 days | 45 | 12.83% | 15.17% | 73.3% | 62.64% | -28.78% |
| 90 days | 33 | 48.86% | 47.99% | 87.9% | 134.58% | -52.14% |
Historical occurrences
47 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | -0.02 | $85.14 | -0.01% | -7.73% | -5.64% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-18 | -0.01 | $59.42 | -1.52% | +23.96% | +32.75% | +41.63% | — | — |
| 2026-08-08 | -0.01 | $54.08 | +1.89% | +1.78% | +4.41% | +39.61% | +62.64% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | -0.01 | $55.84 | -5.94% | -5.89% | +0.55% | +2.87% | +49.34% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.02 | $56.04 | -1.62% | -0.35% | -3.71% | -1.78% | +46.85% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | -0.01 | $57.51 | -0.16% | +3.65% | -2.90% | -2.36% | +38.22% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | -0.02 | $60.83 | -2.42% | -5.61% | -9.37% | -9.54% | +21.08% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | -0.01 | $60.19 | +1.53% | +1.06% | -3.44% | -13.35% | -1.28% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | -0.03 | $66.83 | -9.19% | -9.93% | -11.18% | -19.38% | -15.51% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | -0.02 | $67.30 | -5.74% | -0.70% | -9.20% | -11.43% | -19.11% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | -0.01 | $67.60 | -0.76% | -1.16% | -1.14% | -12.19% | -20.00% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | -0.02 | $62.35 | +7.24% | +11.97% | +8.41% | +7.18% | -15.76% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -0.01 | $64.07 | +0.36% | -4.14% | +4.36% | +4.70% | -9.29% | — |
| 2026-06-21 | -0.01 | $70.73 | -5.32% | -12.17% | -12.87% | -1.29% | -11.74% | — |
| 2026-06-15 | -0.01 | $63.89 | +4.69% | +11.31% | +4.81% | -3.86% | +2.50% | +24.67% |
| 2026-06-10 | -0.01 | $57.76 | -7.79% | +2.64% | +27.35% | +7.54% | +16.14% | +47.41% |
| 2026-06-07 | -0.02 | $56.60 | +5.33% | +2.05% | +7.23% | +24.96% | +24.68% | +49.17% |
| 2026-05-30 | -0.02 | $64.41 | +5.96% | +14.11% | -7.29% | -7.95% | -4.64% | +31.47% |
| 2026-05-24 | -0.02 | $58.67 | +7.03% | +1.40% | +16.33% | -3.53% | +12.83% | +28.69% |
| 2026-05-11 | -0.01 | $42.97 | -2.25% | -9.67% | +6.34% | +46.13% | +34.42% | +28.23% |
| 2026-05-09 | -0.01 | $43.25 | -0.74% | -2.89% | +2.11% | +26.43% | +37.83% | +29.83% |
| 2026-05-06 | -0.01 | $43.72 | -1.41% | -1.08% | -7.97% | +9.93% | +47.21% | +23.42% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.01 | $39.95 | -0.65% | +3.28% | +7.91% | -2.84% | +61.22% | +38.01% |
| 2026-04-14 | -0.03 | $44.41 | -1.84% | -1.22% | -8.31% | -6.22% | -12.60% | +51.54% |
| 2026-04-09 | -0.01 | $38.72 | +2.04% | +9.30% | +15.41% | +6.31% | +11.72% | +78.73% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-23: +42.54%
- 2025-10-22: +35.03%
- 2026-01-27: +33.04%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-28: -13.83%
- 2026-06-21: -12.87%
- 2026-07-16: -11.18%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.