Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After Funding Falls to -0.01%

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after funding falls to -0.01%, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Hyperliquid

47 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 27 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (20 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades27
Win rate59.3%
Average return / trade+4.82%
Compounded total return+200.41%
Max drawdown-19.92%
Buy & hold, same period+114.78%

Hypothetical growth of $100

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-16 2025-10-23 $37.4052 $36.2694 -3.04% 96.96
2025-10-28 2025-11-04 $46.5499 $40.1118 -13.83% 83.55
2025-11-27 2025-12-04 $36.2005 $34.6960 -4.16% 80.08
2026-01-02 2026-01-09 $24.1971 $25.6713 +6.09% 84.96
2026-01-09 2026-01-16 $25.6713 $24.7974 -3.40% 82.07
2026-01-23 2026-01-30 $21.5658 $30.7396 +42.54% 116.98
2026-02-01 2026-02-08 $31.0114 $31.4764 +1.50% 118.73
2026-02-12 2026-02-19 $29.4475 $28.6867 -2.58% 115.66
2026-02-23 2026-03-02 $28.1139 $31.6166 +12.46% 130.08
2026-03-04 2026-03-11 $31.3313 $34.6903 +10.72% 144.02
2026-03-11 2026-03-18 $34.6903 $41.2391 +18.88% 171.21
2026-03-18 2026-03-25 $41.2391 $40.3380 -2.19% 167.47
2026-03-29 2026-04-05 $39.4768 $36.3952 -7.81% 154.40
2026-04-09 2026-04-16 $38.7153 $44.6831 +15.41% 178.19
2026-04-30 2026-05-07 $39.9505 $43.1093 +7.91% 192.28
2026-05-09 2026-05-16 $43.2521 $44.1644 +2.11% 196.34
2026-05-24 2026-05-31 $58.6677 $68.2502 +16.33% 228.41
2026-06-07 2026-06-14 $56.5968 $60.6895 +7.23% 244.93
2026-06-15 2026-06-22 $63.8873 $66.9597 +4.81% 256.70
2026-06-26 2026-07-03 $64.0730 $66.8676 +4.36% 267.90
2026-07-09 2026-07-16 $67.5971 $66.8295 -1.14% 264.86
2026-07-16 2026-07-23 $66.8295 $59.3583 -11.18% 235.25
2026-07-24 2026-07-31 $57.5093 $55.8422 -2.90% 228.43
2026-07-31 2026-08-07 $55.8422 $56.1521 +0.55% 229.70
2026-08-08 2026-08-15 $54.0792 $56.4630 +4.41% 239.82
2026-08-18 2026-08-25 $59.4189 $78.8814 +32.75% 318.38
2026-09-08 2026-09-15 $85.1423 $80.3376 -5.64% 300.41

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Hyperliquid ยท Read the full methodology