Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid After a 5% One-Day Drop?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Hyperliquid dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -13.5% to -10.8% | 2 |
| -10.8% to -8.1% | 0 |
| -8.1% to -5.4% | 5 |
| -5.4% to -2.8% | 3 |
| -2.8% to -0.1% | 10 |
| -0.1% to +2.6% | 7 |
| +2.6% to +5.3% | 4 |
| +5.3% to +8.0% | 2 |
| +8.0% to +10.7% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
36 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | -5.99 | $78.56 | +1.12% | -1.53% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-01 | -5.94 | $52.52 | -0.70% | +2.74% | +2.96% | +7.50% | +52.40% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -5.98 | $56.04 | -1.62% | -0.35% | -3.71% | -1.78% | +46.85% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | -9.19 | $60.69 | -1.56% | +0.70% | -5.24% | -7.98% | -6.30% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | -5.74 | $63.44 | +3.22% | -4.34% | -1.61% | -11.66% | -11.67% | — |
| 2026-06-24 | -6.16 | $62.12 | +2.75% | +3.52% | +4.59% | +11.40% | -7.42% | — |
| 2026-06-22 | -5.32 | $66.96 | -1.14% | -4.68% | -8.27% | +6.44% | -9.15% | — |
| 2026-06-10 | -9.44 | $57.76 | -7.79% | +2.64% | +27.35% | +7.54% | +16.14% | +47.41% |
| 2026-06-05 | -13.61 | $64.37 | -7.23% | -7.38% | -8.48% | +6.06% | +8.47% | +27.27% |
| 2026-06-03 | -5.12 | $69.73 | +6.84% | -14.37% | -17.17% | +5.48% | -4.11% | +20.68% |
| 2026-05-23 | -6.67 | $54.68 | +7.29% | +11.78% | +17.79% | +9.20% | +22.45% | +34.69% |
| 2026-05-17 | -5.36 | $41.80 | +9.31% | +15.00% | +40.36% | +63.28% | +60.02% | +35.08% |
| 2026-04-20 | -7.32 | $40.60 | +0.28% | +1.37% | +4.68% | +2.22% | +18.38% | +48.24% |
| 2026-03-20 | -6.59 | $39.30 | +0.73% | -2.40% | -0.33% | -10.34% | +11.46% | +80.93% |
| 2026-03-06 | -5.04 | $30.60 | +1.56% | +0.67% | +21.75% | +28.46% | +18.95% | +143.50% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.91 | $28.11 | -5.90% | -0.72% | +12.46% | +9.56% | +43.48% | +108.68% |
| 2026-02-18 | -5.43 | $29.58 | -3.03% | +2.78% | -8.04% | +5.91% | +32.86% | +61.28% |
| 2026-02-11 | -8.01 | $28.84 | +2.10% | +9.60% | +2.56% | -5.68% | +29.15% | +45.62% |
| 2026-02-06 | -6.84 | $33.01 | -1.85% | -1.60% | -5.62% | -11.91% | -7.94% | +30.60% |
| 2026-01-30 | -10.33 | $30.74 | -0.53% | -0.36% | +7.38% | +1.34% | +1.74% | +29.96% |
| 2026-01-21 | -11.28 | $21.09 | +2.51% | +7.66% | +45.94% | +54.19% | +37.86% | +93.05% |
| 2025-12-18 | -8.62 | $24.47 | -7.93% | -1.97% | +2.82% | +3.96% | +2.64% | +68.51% |
| 2025-12-10 | -5.18 | $27.95 | +3.33% | +2.37% | -4.17% | -14.27% | -8.14% | +24.02% |
| 2025-12-06 | -7.69 | $30.98 | -0.12% | -4.88% | -7.67% | -19.72% | -13.81% | -1.25% |
| 2025-12-01 | -7.19 | $31.92 | -2.60% | +8.71% | -7.16% | -9.52% | -18.72% | -2.01% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-21: +45.94%
- 2026-05-17: +40.36%
- 2025-10-22: +35.03%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -17.17%
- 2025-10-10: -16.54%
- 2025-10-31: -15.17%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.