Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Hyperliquid
36 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 23 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (13 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-29 | $50.8331 | $47.1639 | -7.22% | 92.78 |
| 2025-10-10 | 2025-10-17 | $44.0533 | $36.7679 | -16.54% | 77.44 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $35.3764 | $47.7681 | +35.03% | 104.56 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $45.4380 | $38.5466 | -15.17% | 88.70 |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-11-14 | $38.5466 | $38.5792 | +0.08% | 88.78 |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-29 | $33.8616 | $34.8943 | +3.05% | 91.49 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-08 | $31.9166 | $29.6300 | -7.16% | 84.93 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2025-12-17 | $27.9467 | $26.7802 | -4.17% | 81.39 |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-25 | $24.4726 | $25.1616 | +2.82% | 83.68 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $21.0921 | $30.7818 | +45.94% | 122.12 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $30.7396 | $33.0075 | +7.38% | 131.13 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $33.0075 | $31.1509 | -5.62% | 123.76 |
| 2026-02-18 | 2026-02-25 | $29.5828 | $27.2057 | -8.04% | 113.81 |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-13 | $30.5968 | $37.2507 | +21.75% | 138.56 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $39.3042 | $39.1758 | -0.33% | 138.11 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2026-04-27 | $40.6048 | $42.5031 | +4.68% | 144.57 |
| 2026-05-17 | 2026-05-24 | $41.7989 | $58.6677 | +40.36% | 202.91 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $69.7334 | $57.7598 | -17.17% | 168.07 |
| 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-17 | $57.7598 | $73.5566 | +27.35% | 214.03 |
| 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-29 | $66.9597 | $61.4204 | -8.27% | 196.33 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $63.4394 | $62.4209 | -1.61% | 193.18 |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-04 | $56.0406 | $53.9620 | -3.71% | 186.01 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Hyperliquid · Read the full methodology