Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Ethereum has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.06% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -31.0% to -26.8% | 1 |
| -26.8% to -22.6% | 2 |
| -22.6% to -18.5% | 0 |
| -18.5% to -14.3% | 2 |
| -14.3% to -10.1% | 0 |
| -10.1% to -6.0% | 0 |
| -6.0% to -1.8% | 4 |
| -1.8% to +2.4% | 2 |
| +2.4% to +6.6% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.43% | -0.00% | 50.0% | 10.79% | -8.75% |
| 3 days | 14 | 0.33% | -0.70% | 64.3% | 10.11% | -19.78% |
| 7 days | 14 | -0.06% | -1.48% | 50.0% | 7.20% | -35.39% |
| 14 days | 14 | -4.71% | -8.43% | 21.4% | 6.56% | -30.99% |
| 30 days | 14 | -14.64% | -9.00% | 35.7% | 28.64% | -33.73% |
| 90 days | 11 | -20.16% | -19.50% | 9.1% | 18.83% | -37.11% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $1858.54 | +0.54% | +2.35% | +0.69% | +2.89% | +28.64% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $1917.57 | -2.97% | -1.81% | -0.80% | -1.73% | +28.14% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $1774.09 | +6.55% | +5.01% | +7.20% | +6.56% | +5.84% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $2116.43 | -0.89% | -2.08% | -4.48% | -25.88% | -18.49% | +18.83% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $2128.89 | -0.92% | +0.15% | -0.86% | -5.89% | -17.86% | -11.95% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $2822.63 | -4.24% | -19.78% | -35.39% | -30.99% | -30.32% | -20.16% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $2941.88 | +1.44% | +0.45% | +2.66% | -24.32% | -33.73% | -21.32% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $3085.41 | +0.02% | +0.20% | +6.71% | -4.22% | -32.18% | -29.41% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $3086.73 | +0.92% | -3.98% | -3.53% | -5.19% | +1.08% | -32.88% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $3019.83 | +0.56% | +3.44% | +2.22% | -1.40% | +4.41% | -31.34% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $3600.36 | -8.75% | -8.00% | -0.95% | -15.95% | -11.43% | -37.11% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $3866.15 | -1.56% | +1.81% | +2.91% | -15.03% | -26.74% | -17.57% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $3893.76 | -1.51% | +2.28% | -0.93% | -2.37% | -18.60% | -13.92% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $3747.46 | +10.79% | +10.11% | +3.80% | +5.51% | -4.84% | -17.67% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-07-14: +7.20%
- 2026-01-10: +6.71%
- 2025-10-12: +3.80%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.39%
- 2026-05-24: -4.48%
- 2025-12-13: -3.53%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.