Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum When Fear & Greed Falls Below 10?
Ethereum has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.10% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -11.4% to -8.7% | 1 |
| -8.7% to -6.1% | 0 |
| -6.1% to -3.4% | 0 |
| -3.4% to -0.8% | 1 |
| -0.8% to +1.9% | 1 |
| +1.9% to +4.5% | 1 |
| +4.5% to +7.2% | 1 |
| +7.2% to +9.9% | 0 |
| +9.9% to +12.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 8.00 | $1687.88 | +0.15% | -3.97% | +2.23% | +1.01% | +4.94% | +46.93% |
| 2026-03-22 | 10.00 | $2066.16 | -0.51% | +4.37% | -3.20% | -0.68% | +12.03% | -17.29% |
| 2026-03-09 | 8.00 | $1939.39 | +2.76% | +5.80% | +12.51% | +6.00% | +15.28% | -19.11% |
| 2026-03-02 | 10.00 | $1939.80 | +4.59% | +9.68% | -0.02% | +12.49% | +8.02% | +4.22% |
| 2026-02-06 | 9.00 | $1823.81 | +12.72% | +14.73% | +6.80% | +6.90% | +8.81% | +28.91% |
| 2025-11-15 | 10.00 | $3118.71 | +1.63% | -2.97% | -11.38% | -2.80% | -1.77% | -37.54% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-09: +12.51%
- 2026-02-06: +6.80%
- 2026-06-08: +2.23%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-11-15: -11.38%
- 2026-03-22: -3.20%
- 2026-03-02: -0.02%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.