Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Ethereum
14 historical signal(s) detected for Ethereum; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $3747.4570 | $3890.0161 | +3.80% | 103.80 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $3866.1518 | $3978.8120 | +2.91% | 106.83 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $3600.3638 | $3566.0499 | -0.95% | 105.81 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $3019.8260 | $3086.7328 | +2.22% | 108.16 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $3086.7328 | $2977.6645 | -3.53% | 104.33 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $3085.4103 | $3292.5139 | +6.71% | 111.34 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $2941.8833 | $3020.0157 | +2.66% | 114.29 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $2822.6338 | $1823.8053 | -35.39% | 73.85 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $2128.8928 | $2110.5930 | -0.86% | 73.21 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $1774.0909 | $1901.7735 | +7.20% | 78.48 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $1917.5714 | $1902.1623 | -0.80% | 77.85 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Ethereum · Read the full methodology